WAG Grace McCallum?…… (US Olympic Team Discussion)

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I think Tom is great. He has helped my daughter out with her gymnastics quite a bit over the years.

As I read somewhere else... the US has been asking for "rank order" for years... that's what we got.

The US just has tons of great athletes.
 
For all the controversy last selection about not going rank order it surprises me how many have issue with it this time. I feel like most sports make their selects based on how people compete at trials. You dont see a track and field star moving on if they came in1 spot outside qualifying. I know there is the "consistency" angle but there is also so much talk about peaking at the right time...so which is it? I much prefer the rank order for the team. I dont think anyone else had a strong enough showing to justify not taking Skinner when bars seems the best place to pick up an extra medal and Riley being injured and not performing well at trials. I think a lot of the debate is that the people we like and dont like ended up in unexpected spots. Skinner is loved or hated so you have many saying she was robbed again just because her vault makes the US team score marginally higher? How would putting her on the team be fair to Grace who is peaking at the right time? This is probably just the harshest outcome for Jade as it increases her competition for the Vault medal and she was told to go for the individual spot.
 
Skinner is loved or hated so you have many saying she was robbed again just because her vault makes the US team score marginally higher? How would putting her on the team be fair to Grace who is peaking at the right time?

"How would it be fair" - MyKayla as 4th would be selecting the highest scoring team. That is what the committee was supposed to do. The article linked above explains it very well and I feel vindicated now after reading it as well as the comments.
 
For all the controversy last selection about not going rank order it surprises me how many have issue with it this time. I feel like most sports make their selects based on how people compete at trials. You dont see a track and field star moving on if they came in1 spot outside qualifying. I know there is the "consistency" angle but there is also so much talk about peaking at the right time...so which is it? I much prefer the rank order for the team. I dont think anyone else had a strong enough showing to justify not taking Skinner when bars seems the best place to pick up an extra medal and Riley being injured and not performing well at trials. I think a lot of the debate is that the people we like and dont like ended up in unexpected spots. Skinner is loved or hated so you have many saying she was robbed again just because her vault makes the US team score marginally higher? How would putting her on the team be fair to Grace who is peaking at the right time? This is probably just the harshest outcome for Jade as it increases her competition for the Vault medal and she was told to go for the individual spot.
First, it is simplistic to compare Olympic selection for gymnastics with other sports. Track and Field are not Gymnastics. We all know that for whatever reason someone might have an off night, but on the balance, over multiple competitions one person will hit more times than not. If Simone had a complete disaster Sunday and fell to 5th would they keep her off the team? Second, this narrative about Riley being inconsistent is completely false, she had hit all of her routines prior to Sunday. If she hits she can certainly medal in bars. Third, lets call this the Tom Forrester narrative since he put it out there after trials, the narrative of "oh its just a couple tenths of a point difference between all of them" is lazy and disrespectful to the athletes that work so hard and the other teams. Tom basically said well we have Simone and after she throws all those big skills its not going to matter. You put the best team you can possibly put together out there. I agree you can make an argument about wanting a solid all-arounder for the fourth spot, but on the spectrum of possible arguments its one of the weakest. But really my biggest issue is that he changed his tune from earlier about putting the best team possible. If we are just going to go rank order then why have a team coordinator? Why have a selection committee? Save the money.
 
the Tom Forrester narrative ... of "oh its just a couple tenths of a point difference between all of them" is lazy and disrespectful to the athletes that work so hard and the other teams. Tom basically said well we have Simone and after she throws all those big skills its not going to matter. You put the best team you can possibly put together out there
Exactly. He made no coherent argument, just basically showed he's afraid to make an actual decision. Relying on Simone or any 1 person to carry the team is such a mistake. She's not invincible. Here's the correct mentality - Simone goes out on vault, underrotates and wrecks her ankle. Out of commission. Now - select your other team members based on that scenario. Yeah we have alternates for injury, but this should still be the scenario.
 
The big problem I see is if you cherry pick your team you open the door for favoritism and politics. So, for years now people rightly are critical of USAG for corruption, abuse, trying to win at all costs, only focusing on winning at the expense of the mental health of athletes. So, the selection committee went with AA results, which is a fair approach. Now people are upset that the process was not more political and strategic. So, we want USAG to be fair and unbiased except for when we don't.

The push for a more strategic approach will open the door for the there to be more cases of athletes being left off teams for 'subjective/political' reasons as they have been for every Olympic cycle if you get a more political person to take Tom's role.

With regards to Riley, Marta probably never (or very rarely) took an athlete on a team that was injured enough that they could only compete one event at a trials and/or nationals. She took specialists but those specialists could compete other events if needed. Riley's other 3 events are completely unseen in 2021 competition, unfortunately. There have been cases where athletes used nationals scores to qualify for trials in past years.

I think also that the historic vision of the selection committee was to use trials and (some years) nationals scores to rank the gymnasts. However, if the selection committee feels justified, they can overrule the ranking. It seems this year they chose not to overrule the rank order.
 
The big problem I see is if you cherry pick your team you open the door for favoritism and politics. So, for years now people rightly are critical of USAG for corruption, abuse, trying to win at all costs, only focusing on winning at the expense of the mental health of athletes. So, the selection committee went with AA results, which is a fair approach. Now people are upset that the process was not more political and strategic. So, we want USAG to be fair and unbiased except for when we don't.

The push for a more strategic approach will open the door for the there to be more cases of athletes being left off teams for 'subjective/political' reasons as they have been for every Olympic cycle if you get a more political person to take Tom's role.

With regards to Riley, Marta probably never (or very rarely) took an athlete on a team that was injured enough that they could only compete one event at a trials and/or nationals. She took specialists but those specialists could compete other events if needed. Riley's other 3 events are completely unseen in 2021 competition, unfortunately. There have been cases where athletes used nationals scores to qualify for trials in past years.

I think also that the historic vision of the selection committee was to use trials and (some years) nationals scores to rank the gymnasts. However, if the selection committee feels justified, they can overrule the ranking. It seems this year they chose not to overrule the rank order.
That's ridiculous, there is nothing political about taking the mathematically highest-scoring team. Best scoring mix of athletes from championships and trials, done. And it is exactly what Tom said they were going to do before trials. Yes, taking AA order on trials only is one way to do it, and this year it will probably work ok because of Simone but what happens next quad, when Simone is not available and picking the team based upon AA order produces a less optimal team? I am fine if that's the way they want to do it knowing that more times than not they will have the least optimal team. Seems dumb to me but if it is open and communicated in advance then ok that's the rules. That's not what happened this year.
 
I just read that according to the rules, that if an injury occurs to a main team member, you have to use the +1 athlete before you can use an alternate. If that’s truly the case, that’s probably why Riley was not picked for the +1 spot. You don’t want an alternate that is injured and can only be used on one event. MyKayla, while maybe not ideal, can be used in the all around position. It also makes more sense to have MyKayla in the +1 spot because she has a legitimate shot at an event medal where Grace’s chances are significantly less in grabbing an individual medal.
 
"How would it be fair" - MyKayla as 4th would be selecting the highest scoring team. That is what the committee was supposed to do. The article linked above explains it very well and I feel vindicated now after reading it as well as the comments.
To be fair, this is
I just read that according to the rules, that if an injury occurs to a main team member, you have to use the +1 athlete before you can use an alternate. If that’s truly the case, that’s probably why Riley was not picked for the +1 spot. You don’t want an alternate that is injured and can only be used on one event. MyKayla, while maybe not ideal, can be used in the all around position. It also makes more sense to have MyKayla in the +1 spot because she has a legitimate shot at an event medal where Grace’s chances are significantly less in grabbing an individual medal.
Yes. I do suspect his thinking was more nuanced than rank order, despite what he communicated. Riley is truly my favorite of this quad, but there were other intervening factors. And I could be wrong, but I think there’s something about if Jade was pulled as back up for an injured team member, that team member would lose their team spot and therefore gold? Correct me if I’m wrong, it’s a bit confusing. Also, while Grace may not be the vaulter Myk is, she certainly isn’t going to lose the team their gold. It’s not like she had a fluke meet, she has been in contention along. And if Myk was on the main team, she could still be 2-per countried out of the EF by Simone and Jade. I think there’s rationale for a variety of team formations, folks are just frustrated because Tom seemed to communicate a specific strategy then change it. But that’s within the committee’s right, just as it was in Marta’s.
 
while Grace may not be the vaulter Myk is, she certainly isn’t going to lose the team their gold.
"They'll win anyway so it doesn't matter if we made the best choice" needs to stop being an argument to defend this. It's as insulting to the other competitors as NBC spending 5 minutes showing Simone drinking water and having her foot taped rather than showing their events. They've all worked their lives for this. Whoever would have rounded out the best team, should have been on the team.
 
"They'll win anyway so it doesn't matter if we made the best choice" needs to stop being an argument to defend this. It's as insulting to the other competitors as NBC spending 5 minutes showing Simone drinking water and having her foot taped rather than showing their events. They've all worked their lives for this. Whoever would have rounded out the best team, should have been on the team.
I never said it doesn’t matter, I’m just pointing out that there are also flaws in the argument that Myk should have been chosen b/c she has the highest vault score. This is one approach, but there are also weaknesses in this approach just as there are weaknesses in not choosing her. I think it’s going a bit far to say I’m insulting the other competitors...I pointed that there are multiple line ups that could work and rationales for each. I’m not sure which is right and which is wrong, just looking at it from another perspective.
 
1st- analytics…… I think Moneyball with Brad Pitt. And in reality analytics is a thing and complex, in other words not just AA and a weekend.

next the ranking thing makes my head hurt cause it reminds of the NYC mayoral primary. Oy, oy, oy.
 
Exactly. He made no coherent argument, just basically showed he's afraid to make an actual decision. Relying on Simone or any 1 person to carry the team is such a mistake. She's not invincible. Here's the correct mentality - Simone goes out on vault, underrotates and wrecks her ankle. Out of commission. Now - select your other team members based on that scenario. Yeah we have alternates for injury, but this should still be the scenario.
In that situation, loosing a few tenths on vault by not having Mykayla is far less of the hit to the team scores than if the team had to use her score on the other three events - so perhaps this was part of the logic. Grace was top 5 on 3 events, Mykayla only on one. Not to mention an international field of judges are likely to be much more thorough in taking deductions on her routines, It will be interesting to see what happens score wise when they all compete in front of diverse judging panels.
 
In that situation, loosing a few tenths on vault by not having Mykayla is far less of the hit to the team scores than if the team had to use her score on the other three events - so perhaps this was part of the logic. Grace was top 5 on 3 events, Mykayla only on one. Not to mention an international field of judges are likely to be much more thorough in taking deductions on her routines, It will be interesting to see what happens score wise when they all compete in front of diverse judging panels.
That would be fine if that's the reasoning and if it's true. He just didn't say anything like that, basically just saying he used the rankings.
 
I gotta say that I am really enjoying reading this discussion right here on ChalkBucket!

Keep it coming… everyone’s opinion is welcome here in the interweb.

Everyone knows that controversy creates conversation!

Yell Card Games GIF by AsmodeeGames
 
Doesn't this mean, though, that Skinner and Carey will not win a medal at the Olympics if the TEAM wins a medal and, that their only hope for a medal is on the apparatus finals? This part irks me, too.
 
So maybe in simple mathematics, Myk produces the higher scoring team, but I calculated it statistically based on the performance trend of each athlete across championships and trials, and whadya know? Grace ends up giving the highest scoring team. I don’t want to take anything away from Mykayla bc she deserves this opportunity as much as the next, but I can tell you from personal experience when 5th is picked over 4th, justified or not, it really stinks. I ran those numbers too, & 5th did barely edge out 4th, holistically, so I think selections are made with what’s best for Team USA AND the gymnasts in mind. In this case, I just don’t feel like they had enough justification to take Mykayla over Grace. I also feel like Grace’s more recent international experience could have played a role in the decision.
 
Here's the correct mentality - Simone goes out on vault, underrotates and wrecks her ankle. Out of commission. Now - select your other team members based on that scenario. Yeah we have alternates for injury, but this should still be the scenario.
Just wanted to retract this bit. It's incorrect logic, because now I know that in case of an injury, they are expected to draw from the individuals before the alternates. (Which in itself is a bit weird, and degrades from those poor alternates ever having any hope of competing, but I digress.) So it should really either be based on:

1.) What person in the 4th team spot would have helped the team most, and/or
2.) overall what arrangement would mathematically win the U.S. the most medals(?)

Some here think Grace is the best choice for 4th. That's fine, when you have a logically-supported argument. If Tom as head of the selection committee (who really needs to have a logically-supported argument more than any other person on Earth) had bothered to make any sort of coherent argument, this would have been fine. But he didn't, and that's really what is the worst part of this:

"Between Grace and MyKayla, there were tenths of a point between them at championships, and this weekend over the two-day period Grace ended up in 4th and so that's how we decided. Even though the computer tells us MyKayla on the team would be a couple of tenths higher..." "we're so so fortunate that our athletes are so strong that I don't think it's going to come down to tenths of a point in Tokyo. We didn't feel like it was worth changing the integrity of the process simply for a couple of tenths." –Tom Forster

If this was actually his thought process, then he just doesn't belong as part of a selection committee. If "the integrity of the process" would somehow be violated by not choosing top 4 at trials, there needn't be a selection committee.
 

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