No Amanar for Gabby

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See attached. These are working off averages for the three meets so far and going for highest score among the combos.
Ok, so team with 2 bar specialists is highest(which isn't going to happen). Other two both replace Gabi with Mykayla with one taking KOcian and one taking Locklear, scoring 0.1 and 0.175 higher. I would not have a problem with Mykayla on this team, but I don't think Marta is going to replace the reigning Olympic gold/reigning World silver medalist to gain a tenth.
Again, for me, this is not about the tenth (though it's there), it's about the fact that Martha has preached for YEARS about consistency, about improvement, drive, moving the team forward. Gabby has done none of that this year. Martha is changing HER rules because of Gabby's past accomplishments. I think that's a wrong. You don't have to agree.
But don't you think past accomplishments, proving you can handle the pressure of a world and Olympic stage should play at least a small role? I do think having proven you can handle that insane level of pressure should play at least a small role in the decision to make an Olympic team. You don't have to agree.
Yep, and what she is doing right now gives the team a 184.904(according to that chart). Best viable option leaving her off gives the team a 185.079. I think the experience makes up for that 0.175.
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She has experience and lately no consistency. In a 3 up 3 count literally the #1 most important thing is can you hit. Do you honestly watch Gabby as she is now and think she'll hit every time? No need to answer, it's a rhetorical question.

Anyhow we're beating a dead horse here (and likely annoying the thread spectators). Agree to disagree. We all know she'll be on the team no matter what anyway.
To me it looks like Gabby just EXPECTS to be on the team because of who she is, where as Aly is WORKING for it. Not to say Gabby isn't working hard, but her little mistakes and her unbecoming attitude are not characteristics that I would want on my team if I were Marta.
Oh Gabby. So much talent, so much mental baggage. I know they won't leave her off the team but it seems very unfair when some of these girls are fighting so hard to make it. She did try to smile though and I definitely give her credit for that. DD said something about her behavior with coaches without any input from me.

Other thoughts:

Ashton - I was tearing up with her. I love her bars so much, but she knew what that fall meant (stupid cameraman though - get out of her and gabby's face).

Mykayla - good for her. Can't believe I am saying this, but why not her over Gabby? They don't need her beam. And she could compete for an individual medal on vault. Let's see what she does night 2 though.

Ragan - I still don't think she's ready.

I miss 2012 Gabby.

I agree, I would pick Mykayla over Gabby at this point, especially since Gabby didn't really impress at nationals either. Trials is the time to bring it. But I'm betting Gabby will still be picked and I don't necessarily think it's the best choice.

I think Ragan could potentially be looking at an alternate spot, before last night I would have said that might not even be possible but she was solid last night.
I think something we can all agree on is there is no spark when it comes to Gabby. Heck, even she agrees:

"I just haven't felt the same passion. I'm not giving up, but I know by Sunday that something needs to change." -SI article written July 9th.

We all know that things don't just change. There's no switch you turn on or off. You either have it or you don't. Passion is a huge part of this sport. That's why so many talented girls quit or burn out so quickly.

Do I think Gabby will make the team? Unfortunately, yes. She is pretty much the cover girl for USA gymnastics. Do I think that it's fair? No.
performance is not only a number game considering the performance in this very moment in gymnastics. it is also teh athlete's personal performance record on peak day, which is something miss douglas is known for dowing expectionally well, that has to be considered, because the team has to win the olympics not trials. like it or not, her performance record is in her favor.

also: we all know sh** about what is really going on in the national team camp at the moment. there are probably already some broken bones girls are working on at this very moment and one or two will go down in the death camp in the weeks to come. the team needs miss douglas.

also: i do not believe that martha will ever, ever, ever select someone because of sympathy or personal likes and dislikes or whatever. she selects those she believes to be the winning team. nothing else. at least that is what she has done in the past and it worked quite well. i do not believe that we people discussing here know better than martha who will bring home medals for team usa.
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performance is not only a number game considering the performance in this very moment in gymnastics. it is also teh athlete's personal performance record on peak day, which is something miss douglas is known for dowing expectionally well, that has to be considered, because the team has to win the olympics not trials. like it or not, her performance record is in her favor.
The Olympics are the ultimate dream of these girls. Many have worked their tails off for most of their lives to get there. And only 5 get to go. Only 5. Some amazing talent will be left behind no matter what. The difference with those who will be alternates is mere tenths and there are trade-offs with all but Simone. I think Martha made it pretty clear in comments Friday that Gabby is going no matter what, so all this discussion probably doesn't matter. Why even bother to have trials if the outcome is already known though? How unfair is that to the girls still fighting for a spot and really stepping up? I hope tonight's competition means something. Mckayla really needs to knock it out of the park again to have a fighting chance (though I think she's got an alternate spot in the bag).

And you're right that we don't know the secrets behind the doors. But shouldn't recent public performances mean something? These girls must perform -- not just in public, but on a giant world stage. As a mother, it pains me to watch Gabby lately. She looks stressed and sad, and I just want to tell to give her a hug and tell her that she does not have to do this. There are others that want it more and they don't feel the stress as much. She probably has more natural talent than the other bubble girls (and yes I think she should be a bubble girl at this point), but we all know how important mental strength is in this sport.
It'll be interesting to see what happens...4 years ago when Asac was coming back ,Marta spoke pretty highly of her as well and the scuttlebutt at the time was that she may not make the team ( although she was second on both vault and beam at Olympic trials) but would "at least be an alternate" because of all her past laurels and contributions to USAG ...well ask Alicia how that went...not sure if Marta will have any loyalty to Douglas if she is seen as a liability in terms of consistency. Marta is all about winning, period.
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Even with a bad night, Gabi was still 5th on vault, 3rd on bars(which is like 2nd since both 1st place girls aren't making the team) and 6th on floor. The reality is she is primarily on the team because of her bars and solid vault that could be used. Team final beam and floor are Hernandez, Biles and Raismann. Team final bars are Douglas, Kocian and Hernandez(possibly Biles if Laurie not completely consistent). Team final vault is Biles, Raismann and Hernandez or Douglas. Nothing about first night of trials changed that being the strongest lineup.

MyKayla did everything she possibly could to make her case. She is without a doubt the lead in the alternate race right now, what a night for her. If something completely unforeseen happens night 2, she is really the only one in position, in my opinion, to move onto the team.

Yes but Laurie could easily take over on bars for Gabby, and if they are going to take 2 bar specialist they should take Madison and Ashton, not Gabby.
Yes but Laurie could easily take over on bars for Gabby, and if they are going to take 2 bar specialist they should take Madison and Ashton, not Gabby.
Gabby is not a bar specialist, she is an all-around gymnast whose best event is bars. A specialist is someone who doesn't do some events(like Locklear) or who doesn't have a difficulty level on some events that a team as strong as USA would consider using(like Kocian's 5.0 vault DV and 5.7 fx DV). Marta will not take 2 specialists. Gabby is capable of filing in on all events, but only currently in the top 3 of probable team members on UB(and possibly vault). That doesn't mean she is a specialist, just means she is not in the top 3 on other events. If team is as previously predicted, Hernendez likely would do UB in team final with Douglas and Kocian.

Forming a team is a difficult balancing act of finding the best balance of gymnasts on all events. Not sure if both Raisman and Skinner can make the same team or if Kocian and Smith could make the same team because they have similar strengths and weaknesses. With only 5 team members, it's a risk to take 2 gymnasts with the same weaknesses. It's why both Dalton and Whittenberg couldn't both make the same men's team, and both Leyva and Orozco couldn't make it.

If Gabby does end up making the team it will be primarily because of her UB(to balance out Raisman) and because she is capable of filling in on vt and fx to balance out Kocian. Her weakest event right now would be considered beam but Simone, Aly, Laurie and Madison are all capable, so Gabbby is the only beam weakness. I am not sure there is another gymnast who fills the slots she does, and that is the main reason she is still on the probable team.
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One of my big worries is that she is not one of the strongest AAs right now. Simone, Aly and Laurie are all stronger. Even if Martha sits Laurie for AA, in all likelihood Gabby does not qualify ahead of Aly unless Aly makes a mistake. Even with tougher international scoring I don't see her passing Aly.

If Martha DOESN'T sit Laurie, then in qualifying Biles, Hernandez, Raisman & Kocian would all compete to secure AA or event final spots. So that means Gabby would only compete bars in the team final. Then Biles, Hernandez, Raisman and Douglas would compete vault, beam and floor.

There is a strong possibility that she won't have ANY individual medals on the line in either scenario. As someone noted on another site, negativity is contagious and one person can bring a whole team down. Beyond proving she can be counted on to hit, Gabby needs to show she can be a supportive team player even when there is no possibility of individual glory.
Would agree Gabby is likely only the 4th strongest AA right now, but that makes her a great built in alternate for the team, should someone get injured after Olympics starts she could fill in on any event.
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