Coaches Staffing, retention, and planning questions

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If we had a gym owners forum, I would probably post there. My question is regarding best practices for selecting a team size given uncertainties around staffing. My brain always turns this into a complicated math problem, but I'm pretty sure I'm thinking too hard. For example:

If you had...
  • 1 highly qualified coach overseeing 70% of the curriculum with a 5% chance of quitting
  • 1 moderately qualified coach overseeing 28% of the curriculum with a 10% chance of quitting
  • 1 under-qualified coach, overseeing 2% of the curriculum with a 25% chance of quitting
  • 20 currently enrolled students, each with a 3% chance of quitting
...how many new students would you recruit for next season?

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Are there any rules of thumb when trying to calculate headcount given staffing uncertainties?
 
I just oversee the programs myself. As the gym owner I am also the head coach.

If someone quits, my program isn’t going to fall apart.

Why do you feel your coaches might quit?
 
I’m not a gym owner but I am a business owner. I think it is important to start with a vision and then create a plan to get there. If your goal is to grow your gym, then enroll the kids and put some effort into hiring and retaining your staff. Good luck
 
If I was uncertain… I wouldn’t recruit anyone.
 
I think the other questions you need to ask yourself is...
What is the potential growth of the club based on the population of the area and competitors, direct (gymnastics) and in-direct (dance, trampoline etc).

How easy is it to get new staff? With training, will your under-qualified staff member gain the skills they need? Do you have the budget and time to provide what they need to improve? Are they more likely to stick around if you put effort into training them?

Is your recreation program well staffed and busy? Do you have recreation coaches who can train up and start taking/assisting with team? Would the club be in a better position long term if you focused on building the rec program now, so it flows to competitive program in future because you have a larger stronger base to draw from.
 

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