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WillWork4Flips

New Member
Jun 13, 2012
20
This is just a hypothetical look at what the quals will look like. I am interested how others will perceive the way it may go down. By all means this is just for fun. Use stats and/or logical reasoning for your picks :)!

Bars
Kocian (def. in has international title)
Douglas- strongest event averages around 15.2
Biles (top of the game can definitely bring a medal in AA, a
So consistently comes in 1st whether international or domestic meets..bars definitely weakest but can drop this score if needed to)
Hernandez 4th highest scoring potential high 14s

Floor
Raiseman (averages mid 15s definitely the floor qeeen)

Simone
(top of the game can definitely bring a medal in AA, a
So consistently comes in 1st whether international or domestic meets)

Hernandez- high scoring potential can push 15s

Gabby- has edge over Kocian I think she squeaks by based on P&Gs & trials 3 out of 4 times she scored higher than Kocian.


Beam

Simone (top of the game can definitely bring a medal in AA, a
So consistently comes in 1st whether international or domestic meets)


Hernandez really has been slaying beam mid 15s very strong.

Aly- for me is usually eh on Bb, usually in high 14s haven't seen her get past that 15 benchmark in awhile.

Gabby/Kocian Not really sure here giving the edge to Gabby because has a more consistent higher average Kocian has also been shaky here. If gabby gets it together at training camp on this apparatus Marta will most likely put her here. Gabby has higher at P&G, but can't count Kocian out because she averaged higher at the trials.

Vault

Simone (top of the game can definitely bring a medal in AA, a
So consistently comes in 1st whether international or domestic meets)

Aly 2nd highest vaulter averages around 15.2

Hernandez- 3rd highest usually pushes a little pass 15

Gabby- has been eh lately on vault but much stronger than Kocian. Gabby averages approximately 15s lately but has the potential to get higher (like worlds 15.3) she could be the teams second best if she gets that amanor.

In my scenario Biles and Hernandez would be both trying to qualify for AA , with a ? For Douglas. Please don't slay me for not including Aly but if Marta is strictly doing this data based I feel like this could happen. Even with a stuck bar routine Aly doesn't really average high. What do you all think? What are your predictions?
It seems like Marta let Biles & Douglas compete AA at worlds as well, not too sure why Aly didn't. If my scenario happens with these 3 girls trying to qualify AA...I can see people losing their minds, but I would not be shocked or surprised!
 

Paint A Melody

Gymnast
Jul 8, 2014
299
I would prefer Aly on bars so she can do AA over Gabby, and since they can probably afford to drop her bars score and use Simone, but I'm not sure they would do that. It will definitely be interesting to see who gets the second all around spot, since Gabby has been meh and Aly and Laurie have been looking good lately.
 
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WillWork4Flips

New Member
Jun 13, 2012
20
Aly worked hard, but don't know if Marta would jeopardize Laurie a higher scoring bars for ally. It will come down to either Aly or Laurie competing on bars. In a post trials interview Marta already basically stated she was putting gabby on vault and bars those are definitely locks for gabby! I also know team finals Simone will not do bars according to Marta. So I am leaning towards Hernandez doing AA at quals
 

WillWork4Flips

New Member
Jun 13, 2012
20

gymdog

Coach
Jul 5, 2007
5,120
I don't have a strong case for anything, but they could also do a different lineup in quals than finals...they will qualify pretty much no matter what they do. I'm not sure Martha WILL do that because maybe she wants to kind of practice how TF will go. But she could put the 4 AA contenders up on bars in quals and then let the best person win. I think she would only massage it in the direction of letting more AA contenders compete, not in the direction of attempting to prevent someone from qualifying (I'm just basing that on 2012).

So basically I guess I'm saying I have doubts she is going to try to prevent Gabby from qualifying. Of course, if Gabby does compete all 4 and doesn't fall, there's a good chance she will be that second person.
 

Ginger

Proud Parent
Apr 14, 2014
252
I don't have a strong case for anything, but they could also do a different lineup in quals than finals...they will qualify pretty much no matter what they do. I'm not sure Martha WILL do that because maybe she wants to kind of practice how TF will go. But she could put the 4 AA contenders up on bars in quals and then let the best person win. I think she would only massage it in the direction of letting more AA contenders compete, not in the direction of attempting to prevent someone from qualifying (I'm just basing that on 2012).

So basically I guess I'm saying I have doubts she is going to try to prevent Gabby from qualifying. Of course, if Gabby does compete all 4 and doesn't fall, there's a good chance she will be that second person.

Madison needs to do bars in quals, in order to qualify for event finals I think.
 

Gymmommy71

Proud Parent
May 15, 2012
890
I'd almost rather not watch one of our girls go through what Jordyn Weiber did last time - that was just heartbreaking. Maybe it would be better if Marta just decided and only put 2 girls up for AA. I just don't know.

I watched a few episodes of that Gabby reality show, and she sure does seem to have the goal of going for the AA gold medal again (like she actually said things on the show implying that her goal is to win, not just get a medal (aka that she'd beat Simone, which is extremely ambitious for her to say)). Either way, Marta and them sure seem to making Gabby's happiness a priority - so my bet is Gabby will do AA in qualifications.
 
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WillWork4Flips

New Member
Jun 13, 2012
20
Either way, Marta and them sure seem to making Gabby's happiness a priority - so my bet is Gabby will do AA in qualifications.

I don't really think Gabby's happiness is the priority. Marta seems to be very data driven she will put in whoever makes the most sense data wise and disregard anyone's feelings.
 

vagymmomma

Proud Parent
Apr 26, 2010
2,746
Virginia
I think Aly and Laurie earned those shots at the AA. Gabby has almost zero chance of beating Simone, so she is highly unlikely to repeat. IMO, Let Gabby do vault and beam in quals and let Madison do bars. Others do AA. Drop Aly in bars finals and gabby on team finals beam and vault. If gabby's Amanar decides to make an appearance, it might be a different discussion.

I know Gabby on beam seems crazy, but her 2nd night trial routine was lovely except for the fall. Don't trust her in finals though. I still don't think her head is in the right spot. It is a shame because she is an extremely talented gymnast.
 

gymdog

Coach
Jul 5, 2007
5,120
Madison needs to do bars in quals, in order to qualify for event finals I think.

Oh good point. I totally spaced on that. I guess it's an exciting question then.

Edit: I don't think Gabby thinks she's going for gold again. She knows she can't beat Simone. Maybe her show fake tried to imply that, but she isn't. None of the other girls will beat Simone either though.
 

cadybearsmommy

Proud Parent
Dec 31, 2010
1,683
Region 8
I think that Laurie and Aly have earned their AA spots IMO. They have both been placing above Gabby in recent competitions and at times WAY above Gabby. I don't think Gabby competing AA would be a wise choice. If only two do AA I would say Biles (obviously) and Laurie. It would make me sad to see Aly not get a chance at AA though.

I could see them competing Gabby on beam in qualifying in addition to bars. It makes me a cringe a bit after nationals, but Kocian fell at nationals too and they have to use whichever one of them is looking better in practices IMO. I have no doubt team final for beam will be Biles, Hernandez and Aly though. And I think Gabby will be in TF in bars for sure, probably with Kocian and Hernandez so they can give Biles a rest.
 

WillWork4Flips

New Member
Jun 13, 2012
20
It looks like it will really come down to who competes bars in quals that will determine who will be going to compete AA. I couldn't imagine Simone being sat out in quals. Kocian is in there. I believe they will include gabby in quals b/c Us is on the struggle bus with bars. So I am really thinking that it will come down to Laurie and Aly. They can only drop one in quals. Marta doesn't seem like the type that would let a point or 2 slide.
 
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IreneKa

Proud Parent
Fan
Mar 18, 2013
1,687
If Gabby is doing bars in quals, and it comes down to choosing between Aly and Laurie to do AA, I decided to compare their scores side by side to see who would be a better choice. I really like Aly, and I really want her to do AA, but if going only by scores, Laurie wins.
AA.jpg
 

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WillWork4Flips

New Member
Jun 13, 2012
20
Pro...you make a good point I believe last olympics during quals Aly scored better than gabby. Laurie is more relatable to that high energy 16 year old 2012 gabby. What is confusing though is the fact Ashton mentioned Marta wants Lauren for bars. Perhaps only in team finals though.
 

l.c.o

Proud Parent
Oct 7, 2013
1,415
What I think might happen in quals:

Vault: Madison out
Bars: Aly out
Beam: Madison out
Floor: Madison out

What I kinda hope happens in quals:

Vault: Madison out
Bars: Gabby out
Beam: Madison out (if Gabby gets it together at camp)
Floor: Gabby out

I hope Simone, Aly, and Laurie get to battle for spots in AA final, though I'd be ok with Gabby IF her potential genuinely was/is higher than recent performances, and she truly works hard, focuses and earns that spot in camp. I think everyone deserves a second chance to prove themselves, especially if their mental health has been in question due to outside influences... Though admittedly the timing is awful.

That said, if not, I'd be bummed for Aly or Laurie just like I was bummed for Maggie at World's last year.
 
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ayyyrial

Coach
Gymnast
Mar 18, 2016
351
27
I think the AA finalists will probably be decided at camp, between Aly and Laurie for who gets to compete bars in quals. Everything else is pretty obvious for the lineup.

I personally hope Laurie will get a shot at the AA but Aly would be a great pick too.
 
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profmom

Proud Parent
Nov 18, 2011
9,461
Region 7
You know, this may sound crazy, but I am more iffy about Gabby's floor than her beam. How much does adding the back tuck to the second pass raise her SV? And the Y turn is problematic as well. I'm not convinced the tuck is worth it. But then again, is Kocian a better option for a fourth floor routine in qualifying? I guess in a certain sense, it doesn't matter much if you have Biles and Raisman's scores in the mix. I'm presuming Hernandez will be fine as well.

I think camp will totally fix her beam. Everything is there already. Martha just needs to bring in a good sports psychologist to give everyone a pep talk about beam.
 
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