Rio Rankings

[bogwoppit]

I agree...what is the point for Dowell and Locklear, both one event wonders...I would have put Smith on the team before either of them...

Me too. I really do not see a place for either in Rio. Would much prefer to see Smith.

 

[gymmutti]

When I saw Ashton's name, I had a slightly different thought. It was more that they were thinking, "Ashton, you have great bars and you are definitely one of the world's best. You are not going to Rio. You know it, we know it. We just can't afford a specialist on one event. So here is what we are going to do: we'll put you in some of the bigger world competitions this year where you can go for bars medals and where our team size is not locked at 5. That way, you'll finish 2016 with some bling. Sorry that it won't be Olympic gold".
I sure hope Brenna does something to show she can start nailing routines outside of camps.

 

[wandrewsjr]

Me too. I really do not see a place for either in Rio. Would much prefer to see Smith.

Arguing the other side, what is the purpose of having the 5th best USA all-arounder on the team? Only 4 compete on each in qualifications, and 3 on each in team finals, so Marta will try to find the perfect balance that gets the closest to bringing the 3 best performers on each event. The US is so flush with all-arounders that are good on every event, that I think it will come down to the best 4 all-arounders and a bar specialist making the team. There really is no purpose in bringing the 5th all-arounder(though they do make an ideal traveling alternate because they can fill in on any event). And when you have 4 good all-arounders, you also essentially already have a built in alternate since you only have to put up 3 on each event in team finals. Then a specialist spot can go to whatever is our all-arounders overall weakest event, which is bars.

My thinking is it's looking like this:
Biles
Hernandez
Douglas
Nichols, Smith or Raismann
Kocian or Locklear

Alternates: whoever is left between Nichols/Smith/Raismann

Anyone else hear that Hernandez finished 2nd AA in camp verification?

 

[bogwoppit]

For me it is about the 5th AA gymnast being able to fill in any spot if needed. I think the US's top AA gymnasts are all world beaters.

 

[wandrewsjr]

For me it is about the 5th AA gymnast being able to fill in any spot if needed. I think the US's top AA gymnasts are all world beaters.

Sure they are all world beaters, in the AA. But only 2 AA's get to go in finals and only 2 on each event. And those top five AA's are not world beaters on uneven bars. Only need 3 for each event in team final, so having 4 AA's is enough insurance(and the 5th can be the alternate). Worth it to have one spot for a gymnast that has the possibility of gold on bars(we have that gold possibility on every other event and AA with the top 4 AA).

 

[twocurlygirlz]

Anyone else hear that Hernandez finished 2nd AA in camp verification?

Yes saw on social media- pretty impressive she beat Douglas....I think she is now a lock for the Rio- not sure about Smith though.....

 

[bookworm]

Sure they are all world beaters, in the AA. But only 2 AA's get to go in finals and only 2 on each event. And those top five AA's are not world beaters on uneven bars. Only need 3 for each event in team final, so having 4 AA's is enough insurance(and the 5th can be the alternate). Worth it to have one spot for a gymnast that has the possibility of gold on bars(we have that gold possibility on every other event and AA with the top 4 AA).

But Marta is all about team gold, and whatever enhances her chances for that, will go to Rio...

 

[wandrewsjr]

But Marta is all about team gold, and whatever enhances her chances for that, will go to Rio...

Totally agree with this, but I don't think bringing the 5th best all arounder increases the team total in the final. I think bringing our best bar worker could increase the teams UB total by a point or more without affecting the other events(our 4 best AA have the 3 other events covered).

 

[vagymmomma]

Very interesting on Hernandez. I am not surprised watching her podium at Jesolo, but didn't she fall on bars when it counted? Makes me a little nervous. I just wish Ashton had a solid second event.

Who of the all arounders can win individual medals besides Simone and Aly? Can Gabby win on beam?

 

[wandrewsjr]

Very interesting on Hernandez. I am not surprised watching her podium at Jesolo, but didn't she fall on bars when it counted? Makes me a little nervous. I just wish Ashton had a solid second event.

Who of the all arounders can win individual medals besides Simone and Aly? Can Gabby win on beam?

Well, of course, Simone can win every event but UB. I think both Aly and Maggie have potential to place on FX. And frankly all the AA's are strong on BB and could make finals if they hit.

 

[bogwoppit]

Well, of course, Simone can win every event but UB. I think both Aly and Maggie have potential to place on FX. And frankly all the AA's are strong on BB and could make finals if they hit.

Makes me look forward to trials even more. Are you going?

 

[Jenny]

Arguing the other side, what is the purpose of having the 5th best USA all-arounder on the team? Only 4 compete on each in qualifications, and 3 on each in team finals, so Marta will try to find the perfect balance that gets the closest to bringing the 3 best performers on each event. The US is so flush with all-arounders that are good on every event, that I think it will come down to the best 4 all-arounders and a bar specialist making the team. There really is no purpose in bringing the 5th all-arounder(though they do make an ideal traveling alternate because they can fill in on any event). And when you have 4 good all-arounders, you also essentially already have a built in alternate since you only have to put up 3 on each event in team finals. Then a specialist spot can go to whatever is our all-arounders overall weakest event, which is bars.

My thinking is it's looking like this:
Biles
Hernandez
Douglas
Nichols, Smith or Raismann
Kocian or Locklear

Alternates: whoever is left between Nichols/Smith/Raismann

Anyone else hear that Hernandez finished 2nd AA in camp verification?

My feelings are similar. Biles, Hernandez and Douglas.

Then if they take Raisman they need Kocian / Locklear for bars
but I think they are more likely to take Nichols and then either Smith / Kocian, whoever is more consistent nearer the time. I don't think they will take Locklear for one event. I think they just need to keep her in the mix as an injury backup for Kocian.
I think Raisman and Smith/ Kocian will be alternates.

If there are any injuries to this group things could change a lot. You might even have Skinner back in as an alternate.

 

[Flyaway]

I cannot wait for trials! It's going to be an intense competition! It will be surreal to watch it play out in person. I'll be relying on CB analysis for sure!

 

[sewgood]

Totally agree with this, but I don't think bringing the 5th best all arounder increases the team total in the final. I think bringing our best bar worker could increase the teams UB total by a point or more without affecting the other events(our 4 best AA have the 3 other events covered).

I agree. I don't think Locklear or Dowell have a chance in the world at making the Rio team unless Kocian is injured. Plus, Kocian is decent on beam if they really needed her for it. The other two are bars only, really.

 

[sewgood]

Keep in mind that women have far more capacity to monetize their gymnastics than men and that by and large the men tend to reach their highest level of competitive capacity later than the women.

Except that most women gymnasts have to decide whether to monetize their gymnastics OR go compete in college (and they have to decide that when they are 15 or 16)... not a choice the guys have to make.

 

[flippingtogether]

Do any any of the current injured girls have a chance for Rio? Flatley recently had minor surgery (she is a beam phenom, but was strong AA in the juniors - she is now a senior this year), Key (don't know her current status).....others?? Or do they just not have a shot at all??

 

[bogwoppit]

Do any any of the current injured girls have a chance for Rio? Flatley recently had minor surgery (she is a beam phenom, but was strong AA in the juniors - she is now a senior this year), Key (don't know her current status).....others?? Or do they just not have a shot at all??

I imagine we will see all the healthy ones at trials. But honestly without international success I doubt we will see any outliers on the Rio team.

The USA could easily have two winning O's teams.

 

[bookworm]

Me too. I really do not see a place for either in Rio. Would much prefer to see Smith.

You will get your wish to see Smith...she was just announced to replace Nichols who "has withdrawn due to a minor knee injury"...

 

[bogwoppit]

You will get your wish to see Smith...she was just announced to replace Nichols who "has withdrawn due to a minor knee injury"...

Wasn't quite the way I hoped, but I will take it.

 

[Pineapple_Lump]

I see Dowell and Locklear's place here as the usual motivator used every Olympic year. Girls get propped and and praised for their hard work to keep pressure on the real potential team members.

Given the rate of injury often seen in final selections for team usa (maybe in part because of the above) Locklear is a dangerous team pick because she is unable to contribute anywhere else for the team. When was the last time she touched floor or vault? As bookworm sais its all about the team, event finals are an afterthought.