Tops is intended to train both talented athletes and talented coaches and is inclusive of all levels and coaching expertise. Hopes optional qualification is skill-based and evidences a different level of preparedness. I have often thought it is more difficult to qualify Hopes optionals for 12-and-unders than just about anything else in elite and JO!
Tops and Hopes are very malleable programs and have historically made significant changes every couple years. For that reason, it's hard to draw any patterns from the past into the present. When Valeri took over the developmental program, for instance, he expanded it to DIC and Developmental levels and added many more athletes to the program. His approach was different than Martha's, but they ran their areas separately. Dan Baker has not had much chance to make an imprint because of the Pandemic, but USAG surely needs (and intends) to add more developmental athletes this fall.
As an example of change, TX Dreams dominated Tops from inception to year 6. In some years, they had over 12 Tops "A" team members. That club also won many Hopes Championships with dozens of medals every year. Once TX Dreams had 13 qualified Junior elites per year, however, the club changed its focus. Today, however, they have one graduating senior elite, no junior elites, and one Hopes-qualified athlete. In its history, WOGA never did Tops or Hopes and sporadically attended developmental camp. After having Olympic champions for three quads, they largely disappeared from elite except for a small number of athletes. This year, however, they have attended developmental camps, have a Hopes AA champion, supply the vast majority of junior elites in the United States, and one third (4/13) juniors at Championships are WOGA athletes. Gage also has no junior elites this year, but showed a wildly talented group at the Parkettes qualifier. WCC has the most senior elites in 2021, but no junior elites. After participating in Hopes in 2019, no one from WCC tested this year.
In spite of these cycles, there IS a strong correlation over the past 10 years between successfully QUALIFYING Junior Elite and staying in the sport. I randomly looked at 2012, 2015 and 2018 US Classics. 25/25 from 2012, 33/37 from 2015 and 42/43 junior elites either are are still actively competing or competed in the NCAA/through senior year of high school. Although I didn't check because there are so many JO National Team members, I would expect a similar correlation of longevity from those successful athletes.
I don't think anyone actually is concerned about whether their child should compete Tops or Hopes. Tops and Hopes are labels that mean something at THAT point in time, but do not mean as much OVER time. They are indicative of significant success (especially for scores over 49.5), but these athletes still need to build on those achievements. Parents' real and underlying question is far deeper which is whether their child is receiving the coaching they need based on their abilities and age? That's a much bigger question and highly individual.
