If your gym opened Monday would you send your child?

[GymMamaX3]

I answered yes. I think something that keeps getting lost is that the expectation has never been that stay-at-home orders/social distance would eliminate the virus. It will just slow the spread so hospitals and health care facilities can be prepared. There is not going to be a miraculous day when gymnasts/children can re-enter the world without a covid-19 risk, and if there is, it will be YEARS from now.

There may never be a vaccine. At some point kids have to resume childhood and we will have to assume some risk. I feel safer with them at the gym than most places, to be honest.

I also don't think this is a perfect answer. I have parents and a grandparent who are high-risk, and I worry about them. I think shutting everything down was a great call in the beginning, and I also suspect numbers are going to plateau more so than actually "go down", at least in most places in the U.S.

Editing to add: This answer assumes my state allowed it because I also am teaching my kids to follow the law. Our gym would never violate state orders/recommendations anyway.

 

[GymDadWA]

It would feel so weird and hypocritical to let her back into gym and contact other gymnasts/coaches/equipment when we are actively social distancing in so many other places with extreme caution. Like you can get spotted on bars, but don't you dare stand right behind that person at checkout.

That being said if the gym was using reasonable caution to prevent the sharing of germs, yeah we would probably send her.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

I answered yes. I think something that keeps getting lost is that the expectation has never been that stay-at-home orders/social distance would eliminate the virus. It will just slow the spread so hospitals and health care facilities can be prepared. There is not going to be a miraculous day when gymnasts/children can re-enter the world without a covid-19 risk, and if there is, it will be YEARS from now.

There may never be a vaccine. At some point kids have to resume childhood and we will have to assume some risk. I feel safer with them at the gym than most places, to be honest.

I also don't think this is a perfect answer. I have parents and a grandparent who are high-risk, and I worry about them. I think shutting everything down was a great call in the beginning, and I also suspect numbers are going to plateau more so than actually "go down", at least in most places in the U.S.

Editing to add: This answer assumes my state allowed it because I also am teaching my kids to follow the law. Our gym would never violate state orders/recommendations anyway.

Yes, and most people recover......

 

[mommyof1]

I answered yes. I think something that keeps getting lost is that the expectation has never been that stay-at-home orders/social distance would eliminate the virus. It will just slow the spread so hospitals and health care facilities can be prepared.

Social distancing was also supposed to buy us time to ramp up testing and contact tracing, which could allow us to implement some degree of containment and would also allow for targeted closings in hot spots. All of this would reduce the risk of transmission. If we simply reopen everything without increasing our capacity for testing and contact tracing, the virus will quickly spread out of control and hospitals will be overwhelmed again.

 

[mommyof1]

Yes, and most people recover......

But many others, including many young and previously healthy people, do not.

 

[DND]

Honestly if schools are not open, then I really think gymnastics gyms should be opening later. It seems like a huge rush when we really are unsure about the way this virus will behave in the youth population.

I would not send my kid to gym.

Here in the Prairies we have been very lucky, probably due to location, population and the fact close downs all took place prior to Spring Break this trips cancelled. We have under 300 cases and 6 deaths with 7 people in hospital.
We find out tomorrow provincial plans, but I think school is out til fall regardless.
In our gym the split of want back to won’t return is about 60/40 to return.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

But many others, including many young and previously healthy people, do not.

Many people of all ages die of many things.

 

[RosellaJam]

I would send mine back now, but my state in Australia only has 43 current active cases. School went back today. As a family we are also quite low risk.

 

[GymMamaX3]

Social distancing was also supposed to buy us time to ramp up testing and contact tracing, which could allow us to implement some degree of containment and would also allow for targeted closings in hot spots. All of this would reduce the risk of transmission. If we simply reopen everything without increasing our capacity for testing and contact tracing, the virus will quickly spread out of control and hospitals will be overwhelmed again.

It sounds like we agree, except I think I am somewhat pessimistic that we will reach that degree of testing and tracing. Hopeful, but pessimistic.

 

[mommyof1]

It sounds like we agree, except I think I am somewhat pessimistic that we will reach that degree of testing and tracing. Hopeful, but pessimistic.

I am also pessimistic about reaching the necessary level of testing and tracing. I do not believe, however, that we should just admit defeat, ease up on social distancing, and let the virus spread unchecked. We need to keep social distancing in place until we have the capacity to implement a containment strategy, however long that takes.

 

[bogwoppit]

Here in the Prairies we have been very lucky, probably due to location, population and the fact close downs all took place prior to Spring Break this trips cancelled. We have under 300 cases and 6 deaths with 7 people in hospital.
We find out tomorrow provincial plans, but I think school is out til fall regardless.
In our gym the split of want back to won’t return is about 60/40 to return.

Up north of Montreal cases are very few. Schools/gym closed March 19th. 98% of the deaths in Quebec are in the over 70's and the majority are in care homes, they failed miserably there.

Elementary schools outside of the "hot zones" will open May 11th, with many caveats and restrictions. I think this is mainly to provide childcare as workers return to their jobs. High schools and universities will remain closed into August.

We have heard nothing about gyms or sports venues opening at all. They are just not considered important to the economy in the same way as the food chain or manufacturing or construction.

 

[GymMamaX3]

I am also pessimistic about reaching the necessary level of testing and tracing. I do not believe, however, that we should just admit defeat, ease up on social distancing, and let the virus spread unchecked. We need to keep social distancing in place until we have the capacity to implement a containment strategy, however long that takes.

Do you have a time limit in mind that it's more beneficial to keep kids isolated versus exposed? I've been thinking about that, because at some point I think there's a real cost to the physical isolation, particularly for children. It's probably premature to have a formed idea of what constitutes "too long" except I'm restless. So, willing to do my (our) part and stay home, but not indefinitely. Our stay at home orders extend through May, and we're on board and staying home. But through the summer? Six months? For a year? My mood on this seems to change day to day (sometimes minute to minute!)!! When I think about kids potentially not returning to school in the fall, part of me dies.

 

[rjb123]

The thing that bothers me is that the point (per our state health director) is to essentially control the spread of the disease through the community so it can be managed. The disease is not going anywhere, a vaccine is a long time in the future, so you are hoping to get the herd immunity as much as possible. But right now the spread has been slowed to the point that healthcare workers (even ER ones!) are being furloughed and having hours and pay cut! So it seems that they are slowing this too much! Also, wouldn't it be wise for it to spread a little FASTER now as it is NOT the regular flu season so that it has spread through more of the community prior to flu season where it would be spreading in conjunction with the seasonal flu- essentially a double whammy? I am an RN and all of my RN friends are being laid off, hours cut etc- and these are "front line" types of folks- not outpatient surgery nurses or anything. It just is starting to seem like they are not managing this well in our area. They kept saying "the surge is coming and it will be a disaster" but even with mediocre social distancing, the hospitals emptied and the surge never came. Now there is a high level of distrust in the state for the leadership.

 

[mommyof1]

The thing that bothers me is that the point (per our state health director) is to essentially control the spread of the disease through the community so it can be managed. The disease is not going anywhere, a vaccine is a long time in the future, so you are hoping to get the herd immunity as much as possible. But right now the spread has been slowed to the point that healthcare workers (even ER ones!) are being furloughed and having hours and pay cut! So it seems that they are slowing this too much! Also, wouldn't it be wise for it to spread a little FASTER now as it is NOT the regular flu season so that it has spread through more of the community prior to flu season where it would be spreading in conjunction with the seasonal flu- essentially a double whammy? I am an RN and all of my RN friends are being laid off, hours cut etc- and these are "front line" types of folks- not outpatient surgery nurses or anything. It just is starting to seem like they are not managing this well in our area. They kept saying "the surge is coming and it will be a disaster" but even with mediocre social distancing, the hospitals emptied and the surge never came. Now there is a high level of distrust in the state for the leadership.

A big issue with resuming elective procedures is the availability of PPE.

The fact that the surge never materialized doesn't demonstrate that the predictions were wrong; it demonstrates that social distancing is working.

Getting to herd immunity by letting people get infected would cost about 2 million lives in the United States.

No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out

We need to start preparing for a darker reality.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Mish]

Being from New York makes it so different in this conversation. Although we are on a downward slope, there were 24 deaths in my county over the last 24 hours. That being said, I would let her back if the gym decided to open within the next week or so. Of course I would have to feel comfortable with the precautions that were put in place.

 

[duyetanh]

Getting to herd immunity by letting people get infected would cost about 2 million lives in the United States.

Maybe...and maybe not. Honestly, who knows. The predictions change almost hourly, and it has become a media circus. It is very easy to find an article which agrees with your opinion. It’s getting ridiculous, and I have stopped looking. The whole thing is awful no matter what, and we feel for those who have lost loved ones. On that point I think everyone agrees.

 

[Flyaway]

I answered no. We live in a hard hit state and unfortunately our county is not doing well and currently has the highest case rate per capita in the state. We reached this point even after almost 7 weeks of shutdown. What this tells me is that people in our county at least are not following social distancing and staying home like they should. I do not anticipate gym being allowed to open before the end of May, so I doubt I will be in this situation, but I would say no if the gym were to open right now.

 

[MILgymFAM]

I said no. Every day I wake up to local news of a new high in positive cases and a rise in deaths. We’ve been on stay at home orders for awhile now and they don’t expire until June, but it is still a problem here, and our part of the state seems to be the worst. I’m honestly not surprised because I don’t think people are following social distancing at all. Outside my front windows today I saw four girls- from different households- doing gymnastics together in the grass (also in a thunderstorm, but I digress). People are not taking it seriously, unfortunately, which means I wouldn’t feel safe sending my kids back to anything.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

A big issue with resuming elective procedures is the availability of PPE.

The fact that the surge never materialized doesn't demonstrate that the predictions were wrong; it demonstrates that social distancing is working.

Getting to herd immunity by letting people get infected would cost about 2 million lives in the United States.

No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out

We need to start preparing for a darker reality.

www.theatlantic.com

To clarify some facts. Might be a little long so feel free to move on, as I am giving more detail on a personal level so folks understand I have first hand knowledge regarding PPE and testing.

I'm in NYS-greater metro area. Medical technologist, out working in the hospital lab. Smaller hospital of a multi-hospital system. We have many COVID patients in house. We have employees with and recovering from COVID. We have an attached nursing home with many COVID patients. Yes we have had deaths. And we have discharged many many recovered COVID patients. We have tested thousands of patients, yes my smaller hospital system. Over 20,000. With many positive patients who never needed hospitalization.

There are no issues with PPE currently. The supply chain issues have been resolved. Now we don't have boxes of stuff just out and about like in the past. Because unfortunately a lot of that seemed to have developed legs and walked away. So most hospitals are keeping more stringent controls on their PPE, so they can have it available to those who need it. And they do. Everyone of us gets our temperatures taken when we enter the building along with a nice new mask. Everyone. Every shift. Every visit. We didn't 6 weeks ago. No longer an issue. I know many RNs, techs, Docs...... Every patient gets hand sanitizer with every meal tray. PPE is not an issue now.

The issue with elective surgeries, is allowing for sufficient staffing and ICU beds/ventilators should an area become a hot spot.

Next regarding the linked article. It is rather big on political slant. Short on facts.

To add some more background to clarify what's to follow regarding testing and studies.

Practicing laboratory science for over 30 years. Board Certified. On the bench, in management. Over a decade working for the company (ies) that pretty much started modern day laboratory testing. Coulter, then Beckman Coulter. Worldwide companies. I was involved in product development as things went to beta sites for FDA approval. And post product release supporting customer (laboratory) validation and implementation of new tests and products.

The time it takes to get a test through validation in this country takes years and is quite extensive. Products and tests are released in Europe and Asia, years before US gets approval. And I have also had products end up on hold elsewhere in the world because of problems discovered in the US that were missed elsewhere. The regulations have been in place long before this current administration was in place. And as a laboratory professional I am amazed by how quickly EUAs were issued and how quickly testing came up. Once it was taken out of the government hands and put into the laboratories. Specimen collection devices were a supply chain issue at first, the swabs and media expire. No one stocks for pandemic volume. Those issues are mostly resolved. Testing was a problem past tense. It is no longer a problem. We are currently doing over a million tests a week in the US. And constantly adding more capacity. And we still don't have solid information on specificity/sensitivity of these tests, in other words false negative and positive rates. Just because you have a test doesn't make it a good test. The jury is still out on how sensitive/accurate the South Korea testing was/is.

And there is no need to get a test just because you want one. You can test negative at lunch time and be exposed and "catch" COVID by dinner.

Antibody testing has started. Those EUAs are released for surveillance use only. There are no immunity claims. This is a new virus, that information is not available yet. Simply because the virus is new. And yes the denominator will get substantially larger. And the mortality rate will get lower. I could of been tested today if I wanted to be. No need at the moment. At some point I will.

And testing the whole US is not going to happen. Its not necessary and not practical. Surveillance testing is to get representative data. More testing where is it needed. Vulnerable high risk populations. Hot spots.

Hydroxychloroquine studies are still ongoing. There is a large study currently going on at the Northwell Health System on Long Island. My sister in law is an RN on a COVID floor with patients on that study. And I am sure there are more studies out there. Same with Resdemisvir. Even our small hospital is doing convalescent plasma transfusions.

The goal of the sheltering orders were never to get to 0 cases. It was to not overwhelm the hospital systems. 2 million deaths is an old model with no mitigation. And sadly people will die. Of COVID and a host of other things. Most people who get COVID will survive. How many will die due to the economic and social complications from this closure? That is a whole different thread. And "opening up" doesn't mean "business as usual" pre COVID. There will be mitigation. Masks are in our future for some time to come. Things like temperature tests. Social distancing in place. Restaurants and movie theaters will have less capacity. Remote working will likely be encouraged. Excessive testing and monitoring will be needed in long term care facilities. And how the long term care facilities were handled is a huge debacle. Contact tracing. And that is going to be different in different areas of the country. Contact testing in Montana is going to be a lot easier then NYC. Where its someone who was on the 4 train today around 8 am is COVID positive.

And no one is going to force any one to get a hair cut, go to the beach, get their nails done, head out to restaurant. No one is going to come force a child to head back into the gym.

Folks who are not comfortable being out and about can stay in and keep their profile low. But the folks who want to venture out, should be able to.

For us. I am working in a hospital. I come home to my family. If I want to sit on a beach blanket, snuggled up with my husband and kid, who I live with,as long as our blanket is appropriately distance from everyone else's it really shouldn't be anyone else's business.

Reasonable and prudent. Yes. But closed until a vaccine. No, not going to happen.