Georgia Tech has developed a tool for assessing the probability that an infected person will be present at an event, given the state, the event size, and a range of assumptions about undercounting of infections.
click "Real-Time US and State-Level Estimates" tab
Our state is doing relatively well right now, and my daughter's gym is small. If we assume that all infections are reported, there's currently a 4.1 percent chance that someone at practice is infected. If the true infection rate is 5x the reported rate, the probability that at least one of the people in the gym during practice is infected is 18.8 percent; if the true infection rate is 10x the reported rate, the probability is 34.2 percent.
Anyone else want to run their numbers and share?
Our state is doing relatively well right now, and my daughter's gym is small. If we assume that all infections are reported, there's currently a 4.1 percent chance that someone at practice is infected. If the true infection rate is 5x the reported rate, the probability that at least one of the people in the gym during practice is infected is 18.8 percent; if the true infection rate is 10x the reported rate, the probability is 34.2 percent.
Anyone else want to run their numbers and share?