Generally speaking, if your gym has been around a while and has never had a L10 athlete go on to NCAA gym, your dd is not likely to be the first. Sadly, there seems to be a shortage of coaches who can prepare athletes to be competitive at L9 and L10, particularly in bars and vault. Sometimes, there is an ebb and flow, and the number of girls at a high level will dwindle due to injury, other interests, etc. You may not see a level 10 every year if the program is fairly small, but you will see consistent success at L8+. Our entire community of 5+ gyms had not seen a successful L10 in years. New, amazing coach in town, and two years later we have 5 girls training for L10 who will be very competitive at that level. Coaching matters...a lot!
As far as your dd's potential to be successful, Kipper's gym has a reputation for being "tough". It's not a good fit for everyone. BUT, lots of these kids (including mine) would be mediocre in another program, and have excelled in this one. You mention that the other program available to you is tough. We heard so many rumor's about Kipper's gym that I almost didn't take her to try it out. I didn't think she would have enough talent to measure up, and would be ignored or belittled, etc. Boy was I wrong! So, we commute nearly 40 minutes and pass 2 gyms along the way who sound a lot like yours. It's worth it for me to know Kipper is getting the best coaching available . The rest is up to her.
I'm not necessarily encouraging you to change gyms. That's a tough decision and you need to consider so many things. I would just hate for the reason you stay to be: a) the coaches/owner convince you they can help your dd meet her goals without providing any evidence of doing so in the past or b) You worry about your dd "measuring up" to the kids in the tougher program.