MAG Level 8 numbers

[profmom]

Our region isn't quite done with state meets, but one very interesting development here is that the number of in age Level 8s has crashed. I was thinking our state was an outlier, so I did some poking around, and at least among states that have had their meets, it's not. I guess that's very good news for L8 guys hoping to make it to nationals!

 

[skschlag]

Well, since 50% of the L8 is our region will make nationals by allotment, I would think so.

 

[lilmisssunshine]

Can you explain this more? My carpool kid is a L8 who's hoping to make it to nationals.

 

[profmom]

Tell your carpool mate that there were 28 guys competing L8 in the 11-12 year old group in his state in 2016. This year there were only 6. The allotment for his region has shrunk a bit from last year, but the percentage of 8s who will make nationals has increased dramatically.

The down side is that the number of older L10s has increased a lot, but the overall number of competitors qualifying to nationals has not. It's going to be a lot harder for 17-19 year old L10s to make it to nationals this year. @krc, do you know if this was by design? Or was it an unintended consequence of the age change?

 

[skschlag]

What questions do you have?

It appears that this year they kept teh total number of L8 kids going to nationals the same as last year, even though there are fewer kiddos competing 8 this year (since 11 yo were taken out except for JE). So there are fewer kids competing L8 this year, but the same number going to nationals as last year.

In our region, 31 L8 kids competed at their state meets. The allotment for our region is 15 for L8. So almost half of the kiddos will make nationals. At L9, the number competing at state meets was 35. The allotment is 11. Level 10 15/16 38 kids with 11 for nationals, and 17/18 has 28 kids with 9 making nationals.

 

[GymDad23]

The most beneficial group for this year's allotment is obviously Level 8 12 year olds. Even if they do not hit the qualifying score for JE at regionals, there's a good chance they'll fall into the allotment and compete JO at nationals. I would be willing to bet the # of 11 year olds that meet the combined JE score in our region will only be about a handful, but definitely less than 10. Since 11 year olds can't compete JO, it opens more spots and that large allotment actually feels a bit larger. Plus any JE petitions don't count against it either.

 

[karenity]

The down side is that the number of older L10s has increased a lot, but the overall number of competitors qualifying to nationals has not. It's going to be a lot harder for 17-19 year old L10s to make it to nationals this year. @krc, do you know if this was by design? Or was it an unintended consequence of the age change?

Curious to know the answer to this question as well. Was this an oops! or intentional? If intentional, what is the rational?

Could it be that event finals qualifications for level 10's has an impact? I don't know how this has worked in previous years, so no idea how many level 10's qualify as event specialists. Anyone know if the event qualifiers is across all age divisions in level 10?

It appears the Level 10 older group 17-18 took a double whammy. The first change is the age cutoff date change. This shifted ~75% of the kids up one age group. Then the reduced numbers in National Allotments in the oldest age division, with the Level 8 national qualifiers getting the equal and opposite double bump up (reduced numbers from age shift, and more qualifier slots).

If I were a parent of both a level 8 12 year old and a level 10 17 year old, and my level 8 12 year old qualified to Nationals and was at the lower end of the qualifier group and the level 10 17 year old just missed the cutoff, I would have a hard time with this. Especially given the 5 more years of work put in to get to level 10. Coaches will have to deal with this though.

 

[gracyomalley]

Our state had a lot of out of age boys - last year the L8 15-18 group was the largest L8 group - and all those boys were forced up or out to JD (most actually had to move to L10 due to the age cut off change happening at the same time...). So smaller L8 group and larger L10, almost no L9s, about 7-10 JDs (mostly younger) and a handful of kids quit or just trained this year...

My 16 year olds coach has been great about it - and let him just train. If he ends up quitting it will be because of school and music taking too much time, these changes won't make him quit, but certainly will make it happen sooner than it would have. He would have loved to do repeat L8 or do L9 this year...but L10 was too much....but what worked well for one boy in a small state might not for many others in bigger ones...

It will all even out for the younger boys in the end and likely 4 years from now we'll have something else to be confused about!

 

[lilmisssunshine]

Tell your carpool mate that there were 28 guys competing L8 in the 11-12 year old group in his state in 2016. This year there were only 6. The allotment for his region has shrunk a bit from last year, but the percentage of 8s who will make nationals has increased dramatically.

Thanks. My kid is in the 13-14yo group, and it looks like there were 13 kids in that group. I looked at other states (procrastinating!!!) and saw that there were quite a few kids with scores higher than his, but I'm not sure if the state meet was just an off day for him or something. But it helps me to understand what he's talking about.

 

[krc]

Hi CB'ers

The current allotment %'s are a consequence of the age-determination date change and the restriction of 11yo's to L8 JE only. Under the old system the numbers scaled fairly well and split nicely into the sessions at Nationals. (4 groups over 4 days) With the new system, the number of gymnasts in each level do not scale upwards at all. Far fewer 8's, many 9's and a pretty even split of big and little 10's. Without redesigning the National sessions, a la Profmom's suggestion, we are stuck trying to fit uneven groups into even sessions. Thus, fewer L8's get the same number of sessions as the larger L9 and 10 groups.

So, intentional? No. Expected? should have been. Put it down to unintended consequences and lack of foresight. That being said, changing Nationals is not as simple as it sounds; flights must be balanced, judges have to be consistent across days and groups. When you put three groups into 2 flights, the assigning of judges get messed up. I don't have an answer for a "new" Nationals, but I'm sure that with the discrepancies highlighted by the new system, changes will be forthcoming for next year. (on top of everything else happening at the home office!)

KRC

BTW this has happened before - when Class III was added to Nationals after the C/O change (2005), and when L9 was first introduced (2008ish I think), and when L8 was introduced (2013)

 

[skschlag]

Thanks. My kid is in the 13-14yo group, and it looks like there were 13 kids in that group. I looked at other states (procrastinating!!!) and saw that there were quite a few kids with scores higher than his, but I'm not sure if the state meet was just an off day for him or something. But it helps me to understand what he's talking about.

If he is L8 13/14, he cannot go to nationals.

 

[lilmisssunshine]

If he is L8 13/14, he cannot go to nationals.

Do they not have that age group? At the beginning of the year (I mean, gym-year), he told me that the coach said that he wouldn't be going
to nationals. But just the other day he seemed to think he had a shot for some reason. I just assumed that he'd improved enough that the
coach was telling him that. It was probably his dad though. I can't imagine our coach making a mistake like that.

 

[skschlag]

Nope. Level 8s only go at 12 for JO. 11 yo JE can go as well. But at 13/14 you have to be L9 to go to nationals

 

[profmom]

Thanks much for the explanation, Krc. I do understand how difficult it is to make everything work with limits on session sizes and the requirement to maintain judging continuity. That being said, I do feel very sad for the guys in the older L10 age group. Surely some athletes who are in their last or second-to-last year of JO competition are going to get bounced from nationals by the guys who were bumped into that category with the age shift. Not a great way for them to end their JO careers and, for some of them, walk away from gymnastics forever. I think it will really damage this group's long-term attachment to the JO program.

This is somewhat personal for me, I'll confess, as we have an older L10 who's come back this year from a terrible run of injuries over the past year and a half. We've been telling ourselves all year that he'd have a decent shot at nationals if he just stayed healthy and worked hard. He's kept his part of the bargain, but looking at the numbers in our region now, it looks impossible for him (way more athletes compared to last year and our nationals allotment was cut). I just hope that if he can't pull off a miracle at regionals, he doesn't become so discouraged that he leaves the sport before his last year as a JO athlete. And this is a kid who's gone to nationals every year he's been eligible.

 

[krc]

@profmom No argument here - I agree. First year 8's are going to get to go to Nationals while stronger (or more committed) older athletes will stay home. Hopefully there will be a more equitable distribution for next year.

 

[karenity]

Big Thanks, @krc for the response, and for taking the time to explain why it isn't easy to change. Lots of change this year, and mistakes or unintended consequences will happen along with change unfortunately. Always easier to see in hindsight of course.

Although my son isn't impacted by this change this year or next year, I know how hard these boys work for so many years and am sad for them. I hope it is a priority for fixing next year.

And so sorry for your son @profmom . I feel really bad for all the kids who will miss nationals as older level 10's after so many years of work and just being healthy enough to compete. Just sticking with the sport through puberty, injuries and even making it to level 10 seems to be something to celebrate.

 

[profmom]

Oh, sorry -- not my kid, but one of his teammates. I guess we're a pretty tight-knit team! My beloved child competed L9 this year as a young and prepubescent 13 year old. We are hoping for a visit from the puberty fairy over the summer and much cleaner and stronger routines next year. But the guy to whom I was referring has been a real team leader and a wonderful mentor to my son.

 

[J&A's mom]

Not in our region! Our 12 year old level 8s are stronger than they have been in a decade.....according to a coach from a different gym. Crazy hard to make it to Nationals here.

 

[skschlag]

I think, what most are referring to, is the fact that 50% of L8s are making nationals, while the upper levels that percentage dropped. Like D's meet today..

33 L9s, 11 made nationals. (and there are 35 in the region)
29 L8s, 15 made nationals.

So that is the part that is hard to swallow, regardless of ages...

So technically, it is easier for L8s to make nationals. than L9/10

 

[J&A's mom]

That's not how it looks here, at least on the state level. More L8s that L9s, and the allotment is higher for the 9s. I don't know how it looked in the past.....