Parents Who's Getting onto College Teams

[JBS]

By far one of the greatest posts on ChalkBucket ever! Thank you for this post @mezzamare!

The data can be found in the following posts...

First set of data: Post #2

Second set of data: Post #27​

 

[mezzamare]

Hi All!

There is a lot of interesting and productive discussion on this site about an athlete's chances at competing in college gymnastics, usually in an effort to answer the "Is my daughter too late/too old?" question. (Parents of girls hitting Level 10 in middle school aren't usually the ones asking!) I know I certainly came to CB looking for some answers once my daughter got serious about college gymnastics as a goal. When I realized there was a lot of information out there to analyze and help answer the too late/too old question, I jumped on it, and now I'm sharing what I learned with you.

I'm by no means an expert, just a data nerd who loves spreadsheets and was willing to do what no sane person would ever do: cross-reference the CollegeGymNews WAG Rosters and Commits spreadsheet with mymeetscores, and do my best to find out what, exactly, the competition experience of athletes actually was when they were brought onto a college team. (I referenced some basic analysis from this project in another thread, and this information basically confirms more of the same, but with harder numbers and some flashy graphics thrown in.)

I've finished surveying the top 20 and bottom 21 schools (as ranked by "Road to Nationals" website), and thought it might be helpful to share what I've found. If anything, I think it can be very reassuring to girls who aren't hitting Level 10 until their later high school years (if at all), that there are opportunities at some programs. I also think it reassures middle school girls on the long haul in Level 10 that their hard work and tenacity may very likely be recognized and rewarded.

Before I dive in, let me give the caveat that these numbers are DEFINITELY not exact. I'm just a lady in front of a computer who gets tired sometimes. Also, data just isn't readily available for international and high-school-track gymnasts (that I know of), and the way my spreadsheets are set up made these outliers hard to include. However, I'd bet anyone an Applebee's dinner that these numbers are pretty darn close. So keep that in mind.

Let's start with some key data points:

For the Top 20 College Programs:

• 345 Athletes
• 228 Scholarship positions (so about 69 percent of athletes have scholarships)
• The average all-time high AA score for athletes across these 20 programs (before college) was 38.19
• These programs are packed with former elite and elite-track gymnasts
• Girls with 5+ years of L10 experience hold 80 percent of the scholarships in this program range

Pretty charts for these Top 20 schools below. The first shows what percent of athletes had a particular length of L10 competition experience. The second shows how many of the 228 scholarships are held by each L10 experience cohort:

Contrast that information with...

The Bottom 21 College Programs:

• 391 Athletes
• Eight (8) scholarships (so about two (2) percent have scholarships)*
• The average all-time high AA score for athletes across these 21 programs (before college) was 34.07**
• 80 percent of the athletes at these schools have 3 years OR LESS experience as a Level 10 gymnast
• These athletes contained a handful of girls who were high school team gymnasts, as well as a few former XCL gymnasts

Pretty charts for Bottom 21 schools:

Is this data mind-blowing? Maybe not, but I think it concretizes things a bit, and might help people understand their chances of things like making a team, competing with a particular school, or receiving a scholarship. It does affirm some of the maxims you see around CB, but also clarifies that what holds true for someone looking for a D1 full-ride scholarship doesn't necessarily apply to someone just looking to continue their love of gymnastics competition into college.

I also think the most interesting data is going to come from surveying the programs from 21-63, where the bulk of the athletes are competing, and things are far less predictable. I will post that information as I get it completed.

Also also, if my afternoon caffeine kicks in and I spot some egregious error on here, I'll be sure to edit and correct,


* Obviously, D3 aid packages usually include some athlete incentive, but that information isn't readily available.
** These numbers include Level 9 AA highs, for the 63 athletes with no demonstrable Level 10 competition experience.

 

[Dahlialover]

That was very informative!

 

[RTT2]

Amazing! Can't wait to share this with my data-loving DD!

 

[Deleted member 18037]

Expectations are completely different then what actually happens

 

[Deleted member 18037]

And the bigger question(s) is how does this compare to the total level 10s then add in total Level 9s competing. Approx 800 athletes compared to how many total.

 

[gymgal]

So, the bottom 20 included the D3 schools? No surprising info here in general. I would be interested in seeing the 20-40 and then the 40-60 groups (not that I am asking you specifically to do that. Thanks for all you already did!). That would really help recruits know where they are generally. I really feel those are the best way to split the tiers. What did you do for the gymnasts who didn't have AA scores in L10? Did you use L9 score? This happens often with gymnasts in the lowest D1 and the D3 programsas they tend to have so many injuries that they don't compete AA well.

 

[mezzamare]

So, the bottom 20 included the D3 schools? No surprising info here in general. I would be interested in seeing the 20-40 and then the 40-60 groups (not that I am asking you specifically to do that. Thanks for all you already did!). That would really help recruits know where they are generally. I really feel those are the best way to split the tiers. What did you do for the gymnasts who didn't have AA scores in L10? Did you use L9 score? This happens often with gymnasts in the lowest D1 and the D3 programsas they tend to have so many injuries that they don't compete AA well.

I definitely agree. The middle will be the interesting information. I started with the top and bottom tiers to get a sense of the score brackets on either end.

I am already working on the two middle tiers, and will post with that when I'm done. Can't leave a project half-finished! lol

Also, yes, I used level 9 scores.

 

[mezzamare]

And the bigger question(s) is how does this compare to the total level 10s then add in total Level 9s competing. Approx 800 athletes compared to how many total.

Might be an interesting next project.

 

[gymgal]

And the bigger question(s) is how does this compare to the total level 10s then add in total Level 9s competing. Approx 800 athletes compared to how many total.

there were a little more than 300 who competed in the Sr E and F divisions in regionals at L10. Now, I am not sure what the DOBs were for this year's divisions but in general, it is a good marker for who are the seniors. Of course, you would also need to add those who were injured and those who didn't qualify to regionals. Likely somewhere between 400-500 seniors.

** These numbers include Level 9 AA highs, for the 63 athletes with no demonstrable Level 10 competition experience.

Did any of these 63 compete L10 at all? Even as specialists? That 16% of level 9 seems rather high, even for D3.

Just checked road to nationals and the bottom 20 are all D3 or new teams with the exception of Alaska (d1) and Bridgeport (D2). So that actually is a really good cutoff for showing that division but using 40-64 would be good to show the lowest level D1s/Ivies.

 

[mezzamare]

Did any of these 63 compete L10 at all? Even as specialists? That 16% of level 9 seems rather high, even for D3.

If an athlete competed at least one meet as a level 10, I counted that as 1 year experience, even if they dropped back to level 9 afterwards. Not sure if that makes the most sense, but I had to stick with one way of doing things.

I did my best to confirm those zero L10 experience numbers. In the event where a girl or a girl's name was associated with multiple gyms, I checked them all to make sure I counted everything. Even did my best to check for various names, like Abby/Abigail, or Liz/Elizabeth. But very possible I missed some.

I will say that the bulk of those zero L10 experience athletes are heavily concentrated in the bottom ten schools, which sort of makes sense.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

there were a little more than 300 who competed in the Sr E and F divisions in regionals at L10. Now, I am not sure what the DOBs were for this year's divisions but in general, it is a good marker for who are the seniors. Of course, you would also need to add those who were injured and those who didn't qualify to regionals. Likely somewhere between 400-500 seniors.

Did any of these 63 compete L10 at all? Even as specialists? That 16% of level 9 seems rather high, even for D3.

Just checked road to nationals and the bottom 20 are all D3 or new teams with the exception of Alaska (d1) and Bridgeport (D2). So that actually is a really good cutoff for showing that division but using 40-64 would be good to show the lowest level D1s/Ivies.

I was asking about ALL L10 s and L9s. Not regional and National qualifers but ALL., no matter age groups either.

I guess you would have to look at all 50 states State Meets for L10 and L9 to even come close

 

[gymgal]

I was asking about ALL L10 s and L9s. Not regional and National qualifers but ALL., no matter age groups either.

I guess you would have to look at all 50 states State Meets for L10 and L9 to even come close

It was roughly 2000 for level 10, according to last published data, which was before COVID. Can't remember level 9 number

 

[Carly]

This is definitely interesting even though my dd is definitely not doing gymnastics in college.
So these numbers that I copied below are the total number of girls on those teams, correct? So in theory, there may be approximately only 1/4 of those numbers of spots open per year to replace the graduating seniors.
For the Top 20 College Programs:

• 345 Athletes

The Bottom 21 College Programs:

• 391 Athletes

 

[cmg]

Thanks for doing this! That is a lot of work and as a data person myself I find your analysis very interesting. My daughter would have been in the data somewhere! She was a late bloomer and was finishing L9 her sophomore year. I knew she needed to have two full years of L10 to have a shot at lower level D1. Well, Covid hit and so she couldn't finish L9 so no shot at regionals, westerns. Then she broke her ankle first year training L10. It took 2 years to get her back to doing gymnastics so took a gap year to try to get one year of L10 for a shot at D3. It was a roller coaster ride since as most people know on this site, first year L10 is a crap shoot. I didn't know if her dream would happen, and she really just focused on D3 since that was the reality. But I am happy to say that she was picked up by a D3 school and they are very strong in her intended major, so it just worked out perfectly. It still doesn't seem real to me and probably won't sink in until I drop her off to college in the fall! You have to have a lot of determination and persistence to make a team especially if you are not a 5-year L10 with AA scores over 38, but if my daughter can do it, I say anyone can who has the talent and perseverance. Most L10 athletes have the talent just getting to L10 so really it is just how badly to they want to continue their gymnastics career.

 

[DataMom]

This is amazing! Love, another data mom!

 

[gymgal]

Most L10 athletes have the talent just getting to L10 so really it is just how badly to they want to continue their gymnastics career.

And whether they can stay healthy... Congrats to your dd. Mine is graduating from a D3 this year. It was an incredible experience all around for her and for us as parents - to finally see her compete how we knew she could if she could just stay healthy throughout comp season was amazing

 

[mezzamare]

This is definitely interesting even though my dd is definitely not doing gymnastics in college.
So these numbers that I copied below are the total number of girls on those teams, correct? So in theory, there may be approximately only 1/4 of those numbers of spots open per year to replace the graduating seniors.
For the Top 20 College Programs:

• 345 Athletes

The Bottom 21 College Programs:

• 391 Athletes

Generally, yes, although the number of recruits obviously depends upon a number of factors.

The CGN WAG sheets do break down the rosters by class, so if you eyeball them you can see how the recruit classes change from year to year, and hazily forecast future team needs.

 

[mezzamare]

Thanks for doing this! That is a lot of work and as a data person myself I find your analysis very interesting. My daughter would have been in the data somewhere! She was a late bloomer and was finishing L9 her sophomore year. I knew she needed to have two full years of L10 to have a shot at lower level D1. Well, Covid hit and so she couldn't finish L9 so no shot at regionals, westerns. Then she broke her ankle first year training L10. It took 2 years to get her back to doing gymnastics so took a gap year to try to get one year of L10 for a shot at D3. It was a roller coaster ride since as most people know on this site, first year L10 is a crap shoot. I didn't know if her dream would happen, and she really just focused on D3 since that was the reality. But I am happy to say that she was picked up by a D3 school and they are very strong in her intended major, so it just worked out perfectly. It still doesn't seem real to me and probably won't sink in until I drop her off to college in the fall! You have to have a lot of determination and persistence to make a team especially if you are not a 5-year L10 with AA scores over 38, but if my daughter can do it, I say anyone can who has the talent and perseverance. Most L10 athletes have the talent just getting to L10 so really it is just how badly to they want to continue their gymnastics career.

I love this! Major congratulations to your family and your daughter. She did an amazing job rolling with ALL of the punches!

I thought about this a lot, particularly going through the D3 rosters: every score history tells a story. The partial competes, the competition gaps, the level changes. You can see the highs and lows happening in front of you, and I came away incredibly impressed. All of these athletes have so much fortitude and grit. It's incredibly inspiring.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

It was roughly 2000 for level 10, according to last published data, which was before COVID. Can't remember level 9 number

thanks