CDC reports outbreak of COVID-19 delta variant at Oklahoma gymnastics facility

[gymjunkie]

The risk of myocarditis from COVID is much higher than the risk of myocarditis from vaccination:

Should rare cases of heart inflammation put your COVID-19 vaccine plans on hold?

After being vaccinated for COVID-19, some people reported heart inflammation, or myocarditis. Here's how doctors are weighing the risks.

www.heart.org

Doctors with the same level of education and public regard disagree on this because the statistics can be manipulated to support both sides. My good friend is a scientist with the NIH and I have a ped cardiologist in the family so I'm good with my sources. Quite honestly I was shocked to learn the misleading way they calculated the success of the vaccines, so I am leery of any statistics published and definitely do the math myself from now on.

 

[skschlag]

Doctors with the same level of education and public regard disagree on this because the statistics can be manipulated to support both sides. My good friend is a scientist with the NIH and I have a ped cardiologist in the family so I'm good with my sources. Quite honestly I was shocked to learn the misleading way they calculated the success of the vaccines, so I am leery of any statistics published and definitely do the math myself from now on.

So do you have sources that you can share? If you have resources that say that, then I think there should be some links or studies that you can share with us. I can find resources that say that the risk is greater with infection than with vaccine. A claim like this should have something to back it up.

I am also interested in the "immune after infection." Is there some definitive answers on that, yet? Most of what I see has said that immunity seems to last up to 8 months after infection, and are unsure of the risk after that, especially with the variants. I think there is hope that the immunity lasts, but not enough data yet.

 

[Geoffrey Taucer]

Doctors with the same level of education and public regard disagree on this because the statistics can be manipulated to support both sides. My good friend is a scientist with the NIH and I have a ped cardiologist in the family so I'm good with my sources. Quite honestly I was shocked to learn the misleading way they calculated the success of the vaccines, so I am leery of any statistics published and definitely do the math myself from now on.

I feel like there's a disconnect here on what it means to cite a source. The idea is to share a link to a respectable source of information, so that we can look at the same info you're looking at, and evaluate whether or not we find it reliable or convincing.

"I have scientists and doctors among my friends and family" is not citing a source.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

J&J is, overall, much less effective against "mild" and "moderate" disease than the mRNA vaccines. Part of this may be a result of the fact that it is adminstered as a single dose rather than in a two-dose regimen.

Opinion | Finally, Experts Break the Silence on J.&J. Boosters (Published 2021)

For too long, those who got the one-dose vaccine were left in the dark.

www.nytimes.com

Don’t have a subscription. That’s ok, it’s opinion. Please cite the actual study.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

I am also interested in the "immune after infection." Is there some definitive answers on that, yet? Most of what I see has said that immunity seems to last up to 8 months after infection, and are unsure of the risk after that, especially with the variants. I think there is hope that the immunity lasts, but not enough data yet.

Immunity involves a number of things. when they speak of ”immunity lasting 8 months after infection“ They are typically talking about the presence of antibodies being found in the serum. Antibodies can wane, the T cells remember however and can respond to an antigen challenge after the in the serum have waned.

How long? Jury is still out

 

[skschlag]

Immunity involves a number of things. when they speak of ”immunity lasting 8 months after infection“ They are typically talking about the presence of antibodies being found in the serum. Antibodies can wane, the T cells remember however and can respond to an antigen challenge after the in the serum have waned.

How long? Jury is still out

I understand immunity, but haven't seen anything really conclusive. So for the person who shared it to make an unequivocal statement that they are immune because they had it seems faulty.

 

[Geoffrey Taucer]

Also even if people who'd been infected had ironclad long-term immunity, the goal would STILL be to not get infected.

"I got immunity by catching covid" is a textbook example of survivorship bias.

 

[mommyof1]

Don’t have a subscription. That’s ok, it’s opinion. Please cite the actual study.

The article is in the opinion section because it includes the author’s personal experience, but it does a pretty thorough job of summarizing the scientific debate over whether people who got J & J need an mRNA booster.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

I am not advocating for lockdown, but I fail to see how requiring people to wear masks in public places is an imposition. It is more effective to put the mask on the person spreading the virus than on the person who is trying to avoid infection, and most effective to have masks on both. The less the virus spreads, the less opportunity it has to develop into more dangerous variants that can evade the vaccines.

The jury is still out on if masks are effective at all. I have seen no studies that provide absolute proof either way.

They still can’t decide droplet or airborne.

And considering the ridiculous claims of surface spread that caused shortages of wipes. The intense overcleaning of everything. And people getting naked in their garages before coming in the house. Well I’m a little skeptical about masks.

Anecdotally, with over 30 years in healthcare and hospitals. You could make a case for if someone is symptomatic they should perhaps mask. in a hospital setting it is typically the immunocompromised person who comes into the buildings masked. The whole hospital doesn’t mask for the immunocompromised person.

Even now I am in many hospitals each month. I am finally starting to be able to work without a mask. If you are vaxed and in a non clinical (as in no patients ) you can not wear a mask.

JMO. NO more global masking as above and vaccine/herd immunity, not necessary but for a few. There should not be required masking for the masses because of some who are medically vulnerable. And the masses certainly should not be required to mask because of the hyper risk sensitive.

I was fine with putting up with discomfort pre vax going with the better safe then sorry. With vaccines yeah, no

What people, businesses and healthcare facilities require is their business. I’ll respect that and make my decisions accordingly.

But the government requiring it, I’m over it. And in most situations there is no science or data to support it.

 

[Deleted member 18037]

The article is in the opinion section because it includes the author’s personal experience, but it does a pretty thorough job of summarizing the scientific debate over whether people who got J & J need an mRNA booster.

Debate, implies, also not conclusive. If it were conclusive there would be no debate. Do you have any studies?

 

[Geoffrey Taucer]

I mean, masks have kinda grown on me as just a general fashion accessory. I now have an excuse to walk around in public looking like a ninja

Also it provides another avenue by which to wear my nerddom for all to see.

 

[mommyof1]

In the clinical trials, J & J was only 66.3 percent effective in preventing mild to moderate disease and 76.3 effective in preventing severe to critical disease. Efficacy was much higher in the Pfizer and Moderna trials. It is frequently pointed out that it is difficult to make direct comparisons because the studies used different protocols and occurred at slightly different times in different places, but absent a head-to-head comparison and absent serious criticisms bringing the methodology of any trial into question, I would certainly prefer the vaccine with higher demonstrated efficacy.

CDC Recommends Updated COVID Vaccines to Target New Variants

A CDC advisory committee voted to recommend the updated COVID-19 vaccines for all Americans 6 months of age and older. The FDA has approved the new vaccines this week.

www.healthline.com

 

[mommyof1]

The jury is still out on if masks are effective at all. I have seen no studies that provide absolute proof either way.

They still can’t decide droplet or airborne.

And considering the ridiculous claims of surface spread that caused shortages of wipes. The intense overcleaning of everything. And people getting naked in their garages before coming in the house. Well I’m a little skeptical about masks.

Anecdotally, with over 30 years in healthcare and hospitals. You could make a case for if someone is symptomatic they should perhaps mask. in a hospital setting it is typically the immunocompromised person who comes into the buildings masked. The whole hospital doesn’t mask for the immunocompromised person.

Even now I am in many hospitals each month. I am finally starting to be able to work without a mask. If you are vaxed and in a non clinical (as in no patients ) you can not wear a mask.

JMO. NO more global masking as above and vaccine/herd immunity, not necessary but for a few. There should not be required masking for the masses because of some who are medically vulnerable. And the masses certainly should not be required to mask because of the hyper risk sensitive.

I was fine with putting up with discomfort pre vax going with the better safe then sorry. With vaccines yeah, no

What people, businesses and healthcare facilities require is their business. I’ll respect that and make my decisions accordingly.

But the government requiring it, I’m over it. And in most situations the

The jury is still out on if masks are effective at all. I have seen no studies that provide absolute proof either way.

They still can’t decide droplet or airborne.

And considering the ridiculous claims of surface spread that caused shortages of wipes. The intense overcleaning of everything. And people getting naked in their garages before coming in the house. Well I’m a little skeptical about masks.

Anecdotally, with over 30 years in healthcare and hospitals. You could make a case for if someone is symptomatic they should perhaps mask. in a hospital setting it is typically the immunocompromised person who comes into the buildings masked. The whole hospital doesn’t mask for the immunocompromised person.

Even now I am in many hospitals each month. I am finally starting to be able to work without a mask. If you are vaxed and in a non clinical (as in no patients ) you can not wear a mask.

JMO. NO more global masking as above and vaccine/herd immunity, not necessary but for a few. There should not be required masking for the masses because of some who are medically vulnerable. And the masses certainly should not be required to mask because of the hyper risk sensitive.

I was fine with putting up with discomfort pre vax going with the better safe then sorry. With vaccines yeah, no

What people, businesses and healthcare facilities require is their business. I’ll respect that and make my decisions accordingly.

But the government requiring it, I’m over it. And in most situations there is no science or data to support it.

It is airborne.

WHO Was Wrong About Coronavirus Being Airborne, But Why?

The World Health Organization ignored advice from aerosol scientists, but that's not the only reason why it took so long to accept the facts about Covid.

www.forbes.com

 

[mommyof1]

Variants arise when the virus replicates in infected people. The way to prevent variants from developing is by preventing infections.

The effects of virus variants on COVID-19 vaccines

www.who.int

There is evidence that masks reduce transmission.

Link Removed

 

[gymgal]

The risk of myocarditis from COVID is much higher than the risk of myocarditis from vaccination:

Should rare cases of heart inflammation put your COVID-19 vaccine plans on hold?

After being vaccinated for COVID-19, some people reported heart inflammation, or myocarditis. Here's how doctors are weighing the risks.

www.heart.org

from the article above:
"Although the data is still coming in on apparent myocarditis following the COVID-19 vaccine, CDC numbers through late May estimated that 16 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis would be reported for every million second doses given to people ages 16 to 39. That works out to 0.0016%, or roughly 1 in 62,000.
By contrast, de Lemos said the best studies on college athletes put the chances of a young person getting Link Removed at between 1% and 3%. That's roughly 1 in 50."

This is an example of how numbers can be manipulated and why we need to examine them more closely. The cases of inflammation occurred in under-30yr old males, yet they are using the entire 2nd vaccine dose for the stat. This significantly reduces the percentage. In regard to myocarditis after Covid infection, the study was done on College Athletes, which is not representative of the population being affected.

I am not suggesting that it is better to risk the Covid infection over the vaccine but I think it is important to provide the correct information so that we all can make informed decisions.

 

[mommyof1]

from the article above:
"Although the data is still coming in on apparent myocarditis following the COVID-19 vaccine, CDC numbers through late May estimated that 16 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis would be reported for every million second doses given to people ages 16 to 39. That works out to 0.0016%, or roughly 1 in 62,000.
By contrast, de Lemos said the best studies on college athletes put the chances of a young person getting Link Removed at between 1% and 3%. That's roughly 1 in 50."

This is an example of how numbers can be manipulated and why we need to examine them more closely. The cases of inflammation occurred in under-30yr old males, yet they are using the entire 2nd vaccine dose for the stat. This significantly reduces the percentage. In regard to myocarditis after Covid infection, the study was done on College Athletes, which is not representative of the population being affected.

I am not suggesting that it is better to risk the Covid infection over the vaccine but I think it is important to provide the correct information so that we all can make informed decisions.

If you look at the underlying numbers linked from the article, myocarditis was reported in .002% of mRNA dose 2 recipients aged 18 - 24. That’s all reports of myocarditis, including those unrelated to the vaccine. The percentage is vanishingly small in comparison with the number of cases associated with COVID disease.

https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download

 

[Deleted member 18037]

Variants arise when the virus replicates in infected people. The way to prevent variants from developing is by preventing infections.

The effects of virus variants on COVID-19 vaccines

www.who.int

There is evidence that masks reduce transmission.

Link Removed

The mask article is again anecdotal with data from 18 months ago. And proves not much of anything. Other then, couldn’t hurt/better safe then sorry.

18 months later….. the way to prevent infections today, July of 2021 is to vaccinate.

 

[mommyof1]

I think I am going to have to step away before my head explodes. And they say academic Twitter is nasty…

 

[gymgal]

Also even if people who'd been infected had ironclad long-term immunity, the goal would STILL be to not get infected.

"I got immunity by catching covid" is a textbook example of survivorship bias.

I don't think this is the argument. Rather, it is whether those who have had the infection already should also get the vaccine.

I don't think survivorship bias plays a part in this. Stats show that the chance of dying from Covid is less than 0.25% across the board - higher if you are older or have multiple risk factors and much lower if you are young and healthy. In actuality, that number is significantly lower since we know there were a lot of asymptomatic/untested cases. The media has overblown this pandemic to make it seem like you are playing with your life, which is simply not true for the general population. I am not saying that precautions were not warranted in some situations (crowded spaces, health care, etc) but media created a frenzy where people were literally afraid to leave their homes to take a walk. For 9 months a cable news outlet had a 1/3 of their screen devoted to Covid stats, updating the number of deaths on a ticker. Even now, fully vaccinated, people are still masking up while outdoors, walking be themselves.

COVID-19 deaths by age U.S. 2023 | Statista

Between the beginning of January 2020 and June 14, 2023, of the 1,134,641 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, around 307,169 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older.

www.statista.com

States ranked by COVID-19 death rates

As of October 29, more than 743,000 people in the U.S. had died after contracting COVID-19, according to The New York Times.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

 

[tuckfull]

This is the Wired article referenced in the Forbes article that mommyof1 posted above. I read it back in May and found it so interesting. A great example of how science evolves over time.

The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill