Predictions for Olympic team

[flipandtwist]

After nationals, I believe Liukin would have to make a spectacular comeback at trials as well as show much improvement. I'm not counting her out because Marta says she's okay with giving her time, and she most likely meant more time than just a few days.
But if we were deciding after trials I think it would be:
Wieber
Raisman
Douglas
Ross
Maroney

Floor: Raisman, Wieber, and whoever is looking best
Beam: Wieber, Raisman, Ross
Bars: Ross, Douglas, Wieber
Vault: Maroney, Wieber, and Douglas

 

[bookworm]

Well after watching VISAs, I would say that Liukin is done because if she'd scored like she did this weekend AT Classic, she wouldn't have qualified to VISAs ...and to be an event specialist, you should dominate the event, period. In her interview, she was very gracious "hoping" she would be invited to trials but I don't see that 3 weeks is going to change much when you figure in the 2 weeks since Classic , she looked worse. Her time has just run out and the rest of the team is too deep to gamble a spot on her. I would actually say that Alicia is the only 2008 girl with a shot (albeit probably only for alternate, if that) of making the cut.

 

[ivyagogo]

I have a question about the 3 up 3 count. How do they chose who goes for the all-around when there are only 3 spots for each event? Our best chances for an all around medal are Weiber/Douglas/Raisman, but they can't all compete on all 3 events because then nobody else would compete. I'm a bit confused.

My pick for the team:

Weiber
Douglas
Raisman
Maroney (if healthy)
Ross
alt: Finnegan

 

[wandrewsjr]

4 go on each event for qualifying(which is qualification for team,event and all-around finals). So looks like Raisman,Weiber,Douglas would do all events and then Maroney would do vault and maybe floor and Ross would do bars and beam(maybe floor instead of Maroney).

 

[wandrewsjr]

It is looking more and more like the top 4 all-arounders(Weiber,Douglas,Raisman,Ross) and Maroney pretty much have their spots locked up and time has run out for the vets. Like they kept repeating in the coverage, Marta has said an event specialist has to be spectacular to make the team, and Maroney is really the only one to fit that bill. The only ones close to that standard are Finnegan on beam and Li on ub. If they can clean up a little and hit their 6.9 routines with execution in the 9 range at trials, they will make it interesting for Marta.

 

[iJaide!!]

Wieber
Raisman
Douglas
Ross
and ????

 

[stargazer]

I've only just discovered Elizabeth Price, and from what I can see she has good execution and difficulty. She also seems like a decent all-arounder. How come more people aren't talking about her? Don't get me wrong, I love Jordyn, Aly, Gabby, Kyla and Maroney (and Alicia!!), but I wonder why she isn't in the spotlight more?

 

[Empowered]

Price is super strong on vault, strong on floor but her diff scores on bars/beam were just sort of meh (3 at 5.8, 1 at 6.2) at Nationals. She doesn't plug any of the holes that need to be plugged for team USA.

Plus, I don't mean this in an insulting way to any party, but Marta has a look she likes that she feels will score well internationally and Price doesn't fit that bill. Not meaning to take anything away from her gymnastics because she's fantastic, and not second guessing Marta's opinion because the woman clearly knows her stuff, but that's the way I see it from a completely novice set of eyes.

 

[bogwoppit]

Though I do not think Raisman is gymnastically cleaner than Price. I just think she is a known quantity, but she sure does not have "the international look" that people talk about. She has difficulty and the gift of over scoring.

It will be very interesting to see how some of the over scored routines fair in the Olympic arena. I think it is a shame to build up the girls to these high scores, when typically they will not see those numbers outside of the USA. Though it is possible that either Douglas, Weiber or Raisman will be O champion! My hope is Douglas because she is so fresh and has some beautiful skills, and her smile just warms my heart.

 

[txgymfan]

Well said Bog. I hope Ross makes the team too. Her gymnastics looks very clean and pretty.

 

[gymdog]

Price is a strong gymnast with a lot of potential. I wish we could see her with another year under her belt because even on her "weak" event it seems she has a lot of potential - check out that beam dismount. If she just had more time to get comfortable with the difficulty range she has, and clean up some presentation, I think she could conceivably be in there with the top contenders. But, it's tough to come up so quickly in the run-up to the Olympics. It's possible that she could be like Alicia was in 2008 in another four years.

Anna Li hitting 15.5+ routines is probably looking more likely to be a bars specialist. But on the other hand, Marta has to know where Nastia was in her training - what she showed at Visas can't exactly have been a surprise. So who knows, she might have something else under her belt, a back up plan for the dismount. Don't know what. I would assume if she had potential to twist enough to get the right difficulty she would already be doing it. She made a good choice this weekend. You do not go into a double front dismount with any kind of hesitation. The consequences of a missed double front are too serious. So it can't have been any surprise to anyone who had worked with her in the run-up to Visas that she wasn't going to throw the dismount. I always think it's just a shame that the bars can't be adjusted just a little more because it would work in her favor.

 

[wandrewsjr]

Though I do not think Raisman is gymnastically cleaner than Price. I just think she is a known quantity, but she sure does not have "the international look" that people talk about. She has difficulty and the gift of over scoring.

It will be very interesting to see how some of the over scored routines fair in the Olympic arena. I think it is a shame to build up the girls to these high scores, when typically they will not see those numbers outside of the USA. Though it is possible that either Douglas, Weiber or Raisman will be O champion! My hope is Douglas because she is so fresh and has some beautiful skills, and her smile just warms my heart.

But Raisman has had her gymnastics scored and tested on the international scene. Had the highest floor scores in qualifying and AA final at last years worlds, bronze in the floor final. So while I do think her execution scores will be lower at O's (probably 8.8 instead of the 9.3 at Visas's), everyone's E scores will be lower. And with her D score now a 6.5, I think an 8.8 E score would likely make her Olympic champ on floor.

What I think Raisman does as well as anyone else is avoid all of the automatic landing deductions in the code. She takes virtually no steps in her floor tumbling, and always land with her chest up high. This lack of chest position and squat deduction is especially apparent when you compare her to some of the other girls on beam. Yes she definately gets some lack of flexibility deduction on her dance skills, but she gets very few chest position deductions on her acro skills and dismount, while the other are racking up 1 to 3 tenths(some 5) on every landing.

 

[bookworm]

But Raisman has had her gymnastics scored and tested on the international scene. Had the highest floor scores in qualifying and AA final at last years worlds, bronze in the floor final. So while I do think her execution scores will be lower at O's (probably 8.8 instead of the 9.3 at Visas's), everyone's E scores will be lower. And with her D score now a 6.5, I think an 8.8 E score would likely make her Olympic champ on floor.

What I think Raisman does as well as anyone else is avoid all of the automatic landing deductions in the code. She takes virtually no steps in her floor tumbling, and always land with her chest up high. This lack of chest position and squat deduction is especially apparent when you compare her to some of the other girls on beam. Yes she definately gets some lack of flexibility deduction on her dance skills, but she gets very few chest position deductions on her acro skills and dismount, while the other are racking up 1 to 3 tenths(some 5) on every landing.

This is Aly Raisman in a nutshell...she gives nothing away that SHE CAN CONTROL, and that is why she scores as well as she does. The girl works her butt off on toe point and flexibility but it's just not part of her genetic makeup so she does lose points on that stuff...but on landings and falls, nada. I can't remember the last major competition where she counted a fall...and Marta loves that too. What she loses in stylistic deductions, she more than amply compensates with difficulty. A lot of people will say she's "not artistic" but difficulty is what the code rewards, and she's all over that.

And I agree with you wandrewsjr, she's been tested internationally and scored well (Worlds is no slouch competition!) with the same supposed types of judges that are going to ding the heck out of her when/if she gets to London. While she might not have the most aesthetically pleasing gymnastics to watch (and I actually cringe on her bars) , you have to admit, she hits and she hits when it counts...and Marta loves that.

 

[bogwoppit]

Yup, just no big reward for artistry these days. Aly indeed is a tough competitor and a very hard worker indeed, I guess I love lines more than power.

 

[gymdog]

While she might not have the most aesthetically pleasing gymnastics to watch (and I actually cringe on her bars) , you have to admit, she hits and she hits when it counts...and Marta loves that.

Her jaeger combo that left Mihai speechless on night 1 might have been cringe-worthy, but yeah, you have to admit she fought through that. There's almost no one else who could have caught the bar and kept going the way she did. That counts for something. She has sheer grit even when things go wrong. And I actually think she is really fun to watch on beam and floor. Her first floor pass (1.5 through to arabian double punch layout) is incredible.

 

[ivyagogo]

Aly's jump out of her last tumbling pass on Sunday was somewhere up in the rafters. She was amazing on floor.

 

[txgymfan]

They posted the video on another site. Before the last pass Mihai is clearly coahing her to jump higher in the backround. Its funny.

 

[2020vision]

My take is:

Wieber, Douglas, Ross, Raisman, then either Li or Bross. No idea about alternate.

I also say no to Liukin and no to Maroney. Liukin isn't going to get good enough in three weeks and Marta has gone on record as saying she didn't need a "one hit wonder" that is Maroney.

This is all fun but I think it will be even more fun to come back in three weeks and see how close any of us are!

 

[flipandtwist]

My take is:

Wieber, Douglas, Ross, Raisman, then either Li or Bross. No idea about alternate.

I also say no to Liukin and no to Maroney. Liukin isn't going to get good enough in three weeks and Marta has gone on record as saying she didn't need a "one hit wonder" that is Maroney.

This is all fun but I think it will be even more fun to come back in three weeks and see how close any of us are!

My question is, how are Li and Bross, better than a "one hit wonder". I doubt Bross or Li would win in their specialty event, but if Maroney is healthy she could easily win the Olympics vault. Her floor is getting much better as well.
Bross did not get the highest score on bars, she was behind Douglas and Ross (I think), so she is barely better than Wieber.
I personally feel like Maroney, although strong on an event that has a lot of depth, has more to bring than Li or Bross.

 

[AmandaLynn]

I feel like the fact that they are only allowed a 5 woman team kind of makes is necessary for all of the members on the team to rbe able to at least get through a routine on all events. If they bring someone like Nastia, Bross, etc. and there is an injury, the US could be put in a situation to take a zero on an event in qualification.

I'm sorry, but with the depth of the US team, it would really be in their best interest to take gymnasts that *could* get up and perform on any of the four events if the need arose.

If any of the specialists were in contention for a gold medal on their event, I may see things a bit differently. But with the way things look right now, I just don't think that the risk of naming someone that can only perform on 1-2 events to the olympic team is worth it.