Predictions for USA women's team for worlds?

[blue_5678]

Riley is injured?? I missed that somehow, does anyone have a link to that?

Also does anyone know if there is a set date to announce the team? Canada just announced theirs a couple days ago.

 

[3rd_time_around]

The 4th member of the team will likely only do vault and floor, and the US just doesn't have much choice in seniors that fit that spot right now. If Jade rocks P&G's I think that spot is hers. Do we even have ANY other seniors capable of two high level vaults right now? Does anyone know?

Elena Arenas has a double twisting Yurchenko that is solid. There's a video on FloGymnastics. I'm not sure if she has 2 different vaults, though.

 

[Jard.the.gymnast]

Elena Arenas has a double twisting Yurchenko that is solid. There's a video on FloGymnastics. I'm not sure if she has 2 different vaults, though.

Just curious, is she the daughter of Kim Arenas?

 

[wandrewsjr]

Elena Arenas has a double twisting Yurchenko that is solid. There's a video on FloGymnastics. I'm not sure if she has 2 different vaults, though.

Since no team comp this year, one great vault won't benefit the team, unless she is also the 1st or 2nd best all a rounder in the US. The team will be made up of those with the potential to bring home an AA or event final medal.

 

[amiandjim]

I actually think Carey has a great shot, IF she hits 2 solid vaults at Classic, Nationals, and then camp. There isn't another gymnast who could medal on vault, unless there is something we don't know. Then, you need probably 2 strong AA gymnasts, so I would say Smith and McCusker, unless she can't come back from the injury, in which case I would say Hurd. Then, you take Locklear for bars.

 

[Seeker]

Just curious, is she the daughter of Kim Arenas?

Yes, she is Kim's daughter.

 

[Lunde]

I'm not sure that Locklear is a lock for bars at the moment. So far this year she has competed watered down routines at Jesolo with only a 5.5 D score and was beaten in EF by Eremia of Russia and McCusker. I heard she was meant to compete at classic but hurt her shoulder in PT so withdrew. So I guess we will need to wait until Nationals to see if she has a routine to medal at Worlds - at Classic Smith and McCusker had 6.0 D scores and Schennikova had a 6.2

 

[CLgym]

I was at the US Classic -- and was wondering if anyone's predictions had changed given the performances/results there. I'm too much of a novice to make any predictions myself!

 

[blue_5678]

Before the classic, I had heard lots of people consider McCusker as a given for AA. I personally never saw it that way and still don't after classics (I'm not saying she doesn't deserve a spot, I just don't think its a given or a "for sure" spot if that makes sense). She seems to be kind of inconsistent and dealing with injuries at the moment.

I have also seen a bit of "Alyona Shchennikova for AA" talk on social media after her win. I personally think that there are some better choices for AA (Smith, Hurd, possibly even Thomas depending on how she does at Nationals) but that depends on if the bigger names do all 4 events at nationals or not. I know many of them didn't this past weekend so we will see.

Side note, can we talk about how Gabby Perea won bars with a layout flyaway?! Love that girl!!

 

[gymcoach1]

I'm still not on the Jade Carey train just yet but I definitely think she's a contender. As for Ashton, I don't think she's proved herself yet, especially since she didn't do "her event". I think the priority for Riley should be staying healthy more than anything. I was shocked to see her competing after being in a wrist cast AND crutches just three weeks ago. I was holding my breath watching her compete hoping she wouldn't get hurt. I also think Hurd would be a great addition to the world's team.

 

[Seeker]

I'm still not on the Jade Carey train just yet but I definitely think she's a contender. As for Ashton, I don't think she's proved herself yet, especially since she didn't do "her event". I think the priority for Riley should be staying healthy more than anything. I was shocked to see her competing after being in a wrist cast AND crutches just three weeks ago. I was holding my breath watching her compete hoping she wouldn't get hurt. I also think Hurd would be a great addition to the world's team.

I was too. Not sure that was the best coaching decision. Competing at Classic doesn't matter if she's injured come October. She needs time to heal.

 

[gymcoach1]

I was too. Not sure that was the best coaching decision. Competing at Classic doesn't matter if she's injured come October. She needs time to heal.

I agree. In the long run this meet means nothing, and I think it would've been better to have her sit this one out. I think Valeri wanted to prove that she could get up and compete no matter what, and it seems like he encouraged that more than Maggie who openly said she wasn't ready. I just hope she isn't pushed too hard too early.

 

[wandrewsjr]

I'm still not on the Jade Carey train just yet but I definitely think she's a contender. As for Ashton, I don't think she's proved herself yet, especially since she didn't do "her event". I think the priority for Riley should be staying healthy more than anything. I was shocked to see her competing after being in a wrist cast AND crutches just three weeks ago. I was holding my breath watching her compete hoping she wouldn't get hurt. I also think Hurd would be a great addition to the world's team.

Carey has a 5.6 and 5.8 SV on vault, a 5.7 SV on floor and can perform all well. Those are worlds medal contending numbers. Unless she lands on her butt every time she performs them between now and selection, she is going to worlds. Smith and Carey would be my two locks right now.

 

[Pineapple_Lump]

Carey has a 5.6 and 5.8 SV on vault, a 5.7 SV on floor and can perform all well. Those are worlds medal contending numbers. Unless she lands on her butt every time she performs them between now and selection, she is going to worlds. Smith and Carey would be my two locks right now.

Agreed. I think those who doubt her selection probably don't understand the format of this years worlds. Countries can send a max of four gymnasts, with three competing each event. sending two AA's and two bar specialists for example is a waste of time as someone will have to sit bars out meaning they won't qualify to finals for the event/AA they were selected for. Basically USA has no one else with 2 different (difficult) vaults to qualify to vault finals other than Carey. The only other option would be to just send three to do all around, but one will be locked out of AA finals (still 2 per country rule).

 

[duyetanh]

I don't think they'd send jade Carey. I don't think she has an international experience. And I also don't think Riley will be ready to go. My guess is Ragan Morgan Ashton and trinity

I actually think they will send jade carey. Its the perfect time to do it. And man, we love her story over here.

 

[vagymmomma]

In order to compare SVs to the last Olympic/World teams, is it reasonable to basically add .5? So if Simone had a 7.0 SV last year (assuming all connections), would it be only a 6.5 this cycle? It's amazing how much lower the scores and SVs seem.

 

[Seeker]

I actually think they will send jade carey. Its the perfect time to do it. And man, we love her story over here.

I agree -- if she stands up both vaults at Nationals and continues to do so at camp, she is going. We literally have no one else and she would be in medal contention on Floor and Vault. Why would they leave her at home??

 

[wandrewsjr]

In order to compare SVs to the last Olympic/World teams, is it reasonable to basically add .5? So if Simone had a 7.0 SV last year (assuming all connections), would it be only a 6.5 this cycle? It's amazing how much lower the scores and SVs seem.

I think that's accurate. You also have to remember how much Biles and Raisman were ahead of everyone else on floor. Biles 6.9, raisman 6.6, and the rest of the Olympic floor final 6.1-6.4. Would expect a D score in the mid to high 5's on vault and floor needed to make finals, high 5's to low 6's on beam and bars.

 

[Jard.the.gymnast]

I think that's accurate. You also have to remember how much Biles and Raisman were ahead of everyone else on floor. Biles 6.9, raisman 6.6, and the rest of the Olympic floor final 6.1-6.4. Would expect a D score in the mid to high 5's on vault and floor needed to make finals, high 5's to low 6's on beam and bars.

Simone biles floor 2016 P&G is 5.9 now I believe and Aly floor 2016 P&G is 6.1 in the current code. So 0.5 less seems correct (Simone didn't have a forward element, so she can easily add 0.5 for that requirement)

 

[sewgood]

I think Ragan (AA) and Jade (VT/FX) are locks. I also think a healthy Riley is a lock, but what they put her up on is the question and that is dependent on Ashton. If Ashton is back to full difficulty, doing in-bar skills, etc, then she will go and Riley will do AA. If Ashton isnt verifying full difficulty at selection camp, then I don't think they will take her. If Ashton isn't on the team, then they would probably take Jordan for AA and Riley will do bars and beam instead of AA. I think Morgan will be the alternate.

That's what I would do if I was in charge, anyway.