Parents The enrollment cliff

[RTT2]

I just recently became aware of the "enrollment cliff" that is supposed to impact classes 2026 and beyond, based on a significant dip in student numbers. I guess there was a fairly significant population dip for kids born between 2007-2011. I'm wondering if there is any similar dip in gymnastics numbers? Will there be fewer graduating gymnasts looking for NCAA spots, or is it too small of a population already to really be impacted? I know someone ran the total # of participants across the USAG levels for last year, but I wonder if there is any data by class year.

 

[ORgymmom]

I follow demographics because I’m involved in school enrollment planning. There will be another dip in overall US birth rates years after the kids born in 2015 or so. Gymnastics is too small of a population to be impacted by this at the NCAA level. It is already affecting school enrollment in elementary grades and in my area, they are projecting HS graduating classes to be 25% smaller than now by 2029 or so.

I do think that it would affect gym enrollments for things like rec and ninja programs in areas that are very saturated. However, most gyms that I know of have long waitlist for programs and we’re coming up on an Olympic summer which will capture a lot of the younger kids who are a few years into this population dip.

 

[gymgal]

It's not likely to change recruiting much. Most gyms that are producing D1 gymnasts limit their starting team size. With lower population, there may be a smaller pool to choose from but there will still be enough to cap their team. But even if you were to go strictly by the numbers, a 25% drop in the population equates to roughly 50 gymnasts per graduation year. Sounds like a lot but with 60+ D1 teams, it really isn't much at all.