WAG Grace McCallum?…… (US Olympic Team Discussion)

[Carabistouille]

Doesn't this mean, though, that Skinner and Carey will not win a medal at the Olympics if the TEAM wins a medal and, that their only hope for a medal is on the apparatus finals? This part irks me, too.

Yes, because their scores won't count toward the team total. They can participate in both AA (unlikely) and EF (likely for Jade Carey, less so for Skinner).

 

[gym_dad32608]

Just wanted to retract this bit. It's incorrect logic, because now I know that in case of an injury, they are expected to draw from the individuals before the alternates. (Which in itself is a bit weird, and degrades from those poor alternates ever having any hope of competing, but I digress.) So it should really either be based on:

1.) What person in the 4th team spot would have helped the team most, and/or
2.) overall what arrangement would mathematically win the U.S. the most medals(?)

Some here think Grace is the best choice for 4th. That's fine, when you have a logically-supported argument. If Tom as head of the selection committee (who really needs to have a logically-supported argument more than any other person on Earth) had bothered to make any sort of coherent argument, this would have been fine. But he didn't, and that's really what is the worst part of this:

"Between Grace and MyKayla, there were tenths of a point between them at championships, and this weekend over the two-day period Grace ended up in 4th and so that's how we decided. Even though the computer tells us MyKayla on the team would be a couple of tenths higher..." "we're so so fortunate that our athletes are so strong that I don't think it's going to come down to tenths of a point in Tokyo. We didn't feel like it was worth changing the integrity of the process simply for a couple of tenths." –Tom Forster

If this was actually his thought process, then he just doesn't belong as part of a selection committee. If "the integrity of the process" would somehow be violated by not choosing top 4 at trials, there needn't be a selection committee.

Winner! Winner! Chicken Dinner!

 

[gym_dad32608]

So maybe in simple mathematics, Myk produces the higher scoring team, but I calculated it statistically based on the performance trend of each athlete across championships and trials, and whadya know? Grace ends up giving the highest scoring team. I don’t want to take anything away from Mykayla bc she deserves this opportunity as much as the next, but I can tell you from personal experience when 5th is picked over 4th, justified or not, it really stinks. I ran those numbers too, & 5th did barely edge out 4th, holistically, so I think selections are made with what’s best for Team USA AND the gymnasts in mind. In this case, I just don’t feel like they had enough justification to take Mykayla over Grace. I also feel like Grace’s more recent international experience could have played a role in the decision.

Not sure what data sources you used or the basis of your calculations but USAG uses ProScore to calculate the best possible combinations and even admitted that Skinner yielded the best possible one?

 

[TumbleTimes4]

I understand that MyKayla, who I think absolutely deserves that individual spot, is the highest scoring team by tenths. But if you go with MyKayla, you can’t use her anywhere else. She would actually reduce your score if she were inserted anywhere else in the lineup. Let’s say that Suni tweaks her ankle and is only available to do bars (which I hope not because I love her on AA), who do you want to put up on beam, Grace or MyKayla? Jordan and MyKayla haven’t been scored on an international level in four years. Grace has been and does well with international judges. Grace has also mentioned some upgrades on vault and bars I believe and after coming back from injury, she is on an upward trajectory to peak at the Olympics. All things I’m sure that Tom knows and took into consideration. It is possible based on upgrades that she could contribute to the team in other areas than just vault.

I think it’s very possible that Tom had more reasonings, and while he should have shared them, he chose not to and just tried to keep it simple with an explanation that satisfied nobody.

 

[JBS]

 

[gym_dad32608]

I understand that MyKayla, who I think absolutely deserves that individual spot, is the highest scoring team by tenths. But if you go with MyKayla, you can’t use her anywhere else. She would actually reduce your score if she were inserted anywhere else in the lineup. Let’s say that Suni tweaks her ankle and is only available to do bars (which I hope not because I love her on AA), who do you want to put up on beam, Grace or MyKayla? Jordan and MyKayla haven’t been scored on an international level in four years. Grace has been and does well with international judges. Grace has also mentioned some upgrades on vault and bars I believe and after coming back from injury, she is on an upward trajectory to peak at the Olympics. All things I’m sure that Tom knows and took into consideration. It is possible based on upgrades that she could contribute to the team in other areas than just vault.

I think it’s very possible that Tom had more reasonings, and while he should have shared them, he chose not to and just tried to keep it simple with an explanation that satisfied nobody.

More flawed logic, no coach in any sport puts together a team based upon potential injuries. Trying to control for injuries is impossible, there are too many possible outcomes, every coach knows that. You know what you know in front of you. You put the best team you have out there and if an injury occurs then you address it after the fact because now you know what you have to address.

And if we are going to start throwing pure conjecture that these mysterious upgrades are coming and other reasons only known to Tom, I guess we could add the conjecture that the selection committee member was from the same gym as Grace and is the same gym that was snubbed last quad as possible reasons. Both are silly and highly unlikely.

 

[Flippin'A]

Suni's injury isn't conjecture-- she's been injured all season. She's said it's basically healed now, but it's a perfectly reasonable choice to account for the fact that they're knowingly taking an injured athlete. Now, Grace also had an injury this year so it isn't as cut and dry as that, but given how gymnastics goes as a sport there's no doubt in my mind they're well aware of injuries and taking those into account.

I wasn't aware of the +1 acting as alternate thing until right now and that really changes a lot in terms of my thinking. Jade hasn't shown readiness in the all around (doesn't mean she won't be ready, but we didn't see it at trials,) so with that knowledge MyKayla does seem like the safer option compared to Riley. It also annoys me because the only thing I liked about these +1 spots was the potential for a specialist to get a shot which otherwise wouldn't happen on such a small team. But forcing them to act as the alternate makes that a gamble.

So there is a logic, but Tom Forster decided not to tell us what it is and therefore started a s***storm on social media which is leading to people going after both Grace and MyKayla. I can accept that Forster just isn't good at explaining himself on the fly, but it's been days since the trials. Could no one at USAG put together a message explaining why they did what they did beyond "we're going to win anyway so who cares"?

 

[GYM0M]

@gym_dad32608 Proscore does not make a prediction of score based on the trends of an athlete’s performance. Basically, I just made an educated guess on what the athletes would score based on the available data. I also used the standard deviation of their scores to show who is most consistent.

 

[TumbleTimes4]

More flawed logic, no coach in any sport puts together a team based upon potential injuries. Trying to control for injuries is impossible, there are too many possible outcomes, every coach knows that. You know what you know in front of you. You put the best team you have out there and if an injury occurs then you address it after the fact because now you know what you have to address.

And if we are going to start throwing pure conjecture that these mysterious upgrades are coming and other reasons only known to Tom, I guess we could add the conjecture that the selection committee member was from the same gym as Grace and is the same gym that was snubbed last quad as possible reasons. Both are silly and highly unlikely.

Its not flawed logic when the injury already exists. The reason Suni is a bar queen is because she always had weak ankles and therefore she spent a lot of practice time on bars. And she is coming off from a very recent ankle injury. We aren’t talking about trying to prepare for potential injury for already healthy athletes with strong ankles. Even without supposed upgrades, Grace beat Jordan on floor night 1 on floor and with a hit beam set has the potential to outscore her on beam as well. Grace can contribute on every event. MyKayla can only contribute on one. When your fourth place finisher is a solid AAer that you know scores well internationally and is already a built in back up for the top 3 on any event, to me it’s makes sense to put her on the main team. It’s very reasonable to take Grace.

 

[TumbleTimes4]

And I don’t remember seeing anywhere where Tom said that he would for sure take the highest scoring team, but that it would be considered.

 

[QuietColours]

I can't find the exact quote. From what I recall, Tom said that they had a program that would spit out the highest scoring team and that would be used in deliberations, and the gymternet ran with "Tom is going to take the highest scoring team."

It was also never given what formula(s) would be used. Championships + Trials? Just average? Drop high/low scores? Weight Trials over Championships? By how much? Looking at highest scoring teams if different members go down? You can get some really interesting teams depending on what criteria you feed the program. 'By the numbers' doesn't mean much when it's never disclosed what numbers are being used.

 

[MuggleMom]

I can't find the exact quote. From what I recall, Tom said that they had a program that would spit out the highest scoring team and that would be used in deliberations, and the gymternet ran with "Tom is going to take the highest scoring team."

This times 10! I never recall hearing that except from people who have been very much pro MyKala (not that there is anything wrong with being pro MyKayla but I think some people have been blinded both ways--love and hate-- by their feelings about her) Granted I haven't been reading every interview he has given but the general vibe I got was they would look at everything but they were always going top 4 unless there was a real stand out difference from the top scoring team.

I agree they could explain it better but given some of the discussion all season I am not surprised he left it vague because it will be dissected and twisted no matter what way you explain it. Both MyKayla and Grace are great choices for the 4th spot. I dont think you can really argue with the choice they made, I think if you had made the other choice you couldnt really argue with it either. Its an enviable and crappy spot to be in because its not really clear cut.

 

[GYM0M]

https://usagym.org/PDFs/Pressbox/Selection%20Procedures/w_20olympics_0423.pdf

 

[gymnast0812]

And if we are going to start throwing pure conjecture that these mysterious upgrades are coming and other reasons only known to Tom, I guess we could add the conjecture that the selection committee member was from the same gym as Grace and is the same gym that was snubbed last quad as possible reasons. Both are silly and highly unlikely.

Nothing against your post specifically, just wanted to add as her teammate that upgrades are definitely in the works, particularly on bars. As for the selection committee, they told the coaches afterwards that they planned to pick whoever finished 4th, either Grace, MyKayla, or Kayla.

 

[JBS]

I gotta say... I'm a huge Grace fan! Go Region 4... go USA!

This Instagram post is awesome!

 

[Deleted member 26718]

I don't have instagram. Can someone check if Jessie DeZiel "liked" that post?

 

[ProudGymnast]

I personally like the team... then again I am a big Grace fan and a big Myckayla fan. Although I absolutely love Riley on bars and I'm sad I won't get to see her.

 

[CLgym]

For those who were asking if/when TF said he would be selecting based on the highest scoring team: The new GymCastic podcast (out today) has his quote from Classics at about the 23 minute mark. Take it for what it’s worth….

 

[CLgym]

Also, any thoughts on why the US did not pick its 5th alternate (either the next ranked AA gymnast or a specialist)??

 

[Deleted member 18037]

If Tom as head of the selection committee (who really needs to have a logically-supported argument more than any other person on Earth)

Math is the most logical of arguments. The math of the weekend supports the choice. She was fourth so so was the fourth.