WAG Regional Percentages Question - R8

[ProudDad]

I was always under the impression that when it came to # of gymnasts in optionals that Level 6 and 7 had roughly similar numbers, then the number of girls dropped... by an order of magnitude in some cases (like 8-> 9).

I was just curious if things have changed that much since the 2009 and 2012 numbers were published for registered athletes/level. Or if I just don't understand how the # of girls who qualify for regionals is calculated.

The numbers per level for 2016 Region 8 are below:
Level 6: 206
Level 7: 347
Level 8: 448

I would have expected the numbers to decrease... unless of course the issue is that far fewer girls actually qualify for state... much less regionals at the lower levels even though they compete that level??

 

[gymmutti]

The percentage of girls eligible for L8 regionals is much higher than L6. I don't know exact percentages but it is around the top 50% of L8 girls attending state, with 30% of L7 girls qualifying and 15% of L6 girls qualifying. Those aren't the exact percentages but it gives you an idea. So, it is much more likely to qualify as an L8 than a L6.

 

[twocurlygirlz]

less kids are in each level as the levels get higher but more girls qualify at each level. So for example say 1000 girls at level 6 only 100 qualify, for 750 girls at level 7 200 girls qualify and for a total of 500 kids of level 8 250 qualify. Those are just examples but that is how it works. You are rewarded for longevity- less girls at higher level and a bit easier to qualify as you get higher up.

 

[ProudDad]

It must be a participation thing at states for Region 8 as well. I know our L6 meet has 4 Sessions of 3 flights a piece (12 age brackets)... figuring on around 15 or so girls per bracket attending gives 180 so the ~15% thing seems a tad low (147), but not far off... but I know we see a bit of diversity in the meets we attend, but we definitely don't see all the gymmies in NC, much less the entire region and I feel very confident that a LOT more than just 180 girls in NC had qualifying scores for L6 states (32AA). I think the lowest AA score I saw at any of the attended competitions (not including scratches) was single high 31 and that stood out as being a significant outlier.

I guess if one state reports that every gymnast there qualifies even if they don't attend states. And another only reports the number attending states - then the latter gets shafted on the number that get to go to regionals?

Side Note: Given the low number of slots and based on the scores I have seen at competitions this year I wouldn't be surprised if 38.2+ are the only scores that make L6 regionals for NC - which is substantially more daunting than the 34+ for L9 or even the 34.5 for L10.

 

[twocurlygirlz]

If it helps- in FLA the Level 6 qualifying score to region 8 was around a 38.2 and we have the most bids to regionals.

 

[2G1B]

If it helps- in FLA the Level 6 qualifying score to region 8 was around a 38.2 and we have the most bids to regionals.

Holy cow!!! 38.2???? That is crazy!!

 

[mom2newgymnast]

It must be a participation thing at states for Region 8 as well. I know our L6 meet has 4 Sessions of 3 flights a piece (12 age brackets)... figuring on around 15 or so girls per bracket attending gives 180 so the ~15% thing seems a tad low (147), but not far off... but I know we see a bit of diversity in the meets we attend, but we definitely don't see all the gymmies in NC, much less the entire region and I feel very confident that a LOT more than just 180 girls in NC had qualifying scores for L6 states (32AA). I think the lowest AA score I saw at any of the attended competitions (not including scratches) was single high 31 and that stood out as being a significant outlier.

I guess if one state reports that every gymnast there qualifies even if they don't attend states. And another only reports the number attending states - then the latter gets shafted on the number that get to go to regionals?

Side Note: Given the low number of slots and based on the scores I have seen at competitions this year I wouldn't be surprised if 38.2+ are the only scores that make L6 regionals for NC - which is substantially more daunting than the 34+ for L9 or even the 34.5 for L10.

I think your 180 estimate is probably pretty accurate, if not a little high. If you look at the numbers for last years state meet, there were only 160 level 6's that competed in NC. I don't think there are that there are a lot more that in the state. Some gyms skip level 6 completely. My dd's gym only has 2 or 3 girls that will be at the state meet, because the rest of the level 6's (which was a small group to begin with) moved up mid season and competed level 7 the rest of the season including states. Also if you look at the top 22 scores at states last year, the cut off was 37.05 and there were only 3 scores over 38. So it might not be as high as you fear.

Btw, did you know there is a region 8 social group you can join?

 

[twocurlygirlz]

Holy cow!!! 38.2???? That is crazy!!

crazy low or crazy high? Only about 55 slots were open so it was the top 55- out of all age groups.

 

[2G1B]

crazy low or crazy high?

High! A 36 in GA is a good AA. A 37 is great. A 38 is rare. To need over a 38 to make regionals seems crazy.

 

[twocurlygirlz]

High! A 36 in GA is a good AA. A 37 is great. A 38 is rare. To need over a 38 to make regionals seems crazy.

Wait just checked- 37.3 was the last qualifier- I was OFF!

To make the State Team you must break 38 in 3 levels. For level 8 the qualifying score goes down to the high 36s and for 7 the low 37s!

 

[mom2newgymnast]

crazy low or crazy high? Only about 55 slots were open so it was the top 55- out of all age groups.

I'm not trying to be difficult, but I am confused and since I am a "number's person", I have to ask. When I look at mymeetscores, the top 55 for level 6 in Florida looks like the cutoff is 37.3. What am I missing? I admit that I am not that experienced, so maybe I am looking at the wrong thing.

ETA: I think we posted at the same time!

 

[twocurlygirlz]

I'm not trying to be difficult, but I am confused and since I am a "number's person", I have to ask. When I look at mymeetscores, the top 55 for level 6 in Florida looks like the cutoff is 37.3. What am I missing? I admit that I am not that experienced, so maybe I am looking at the wrong thing.

I misquoted- I was thinking State Team scores....

 

[ProudDad]

High! A 36 in GA is a good AA. A 37 is great. A 38 is rare. To need over a 38 to make regionals seems crazy.

This is how I generally feel which is why I'm a little put off. If we had 63 bids like GA or 55 like FL (GA has more than FL for Level 6) there would likely be some mid 37s rounding out the group. Apparently they would get whooped by the FL girls , but at least there would be hope for clearly talented girls who are competing at the level they train. (There is one gym in our state that regularly competes their girls 2 levels below where they train - I personally overheard a L6 girl complaining about not being able to compete her Yurchenko vault )

 

[ProudDad]

Btw, did you know there is a region 8 social group you can join?

Saw that... not enough posts... yet

 

[twocurlygirlz]

This is how I generally feel which is why I'm a little put off. If we had 63 bids like GA or 55 like FL (GA has more than FL for Level 6) there would likely be some mid 37s rounding out the group. Apparently they would get whooped by the FL girls , but at least there would be hope for clearly talented girls who are competing at the level they train. (There is one gym in our state that regularly competes their girls 2 levels below where they train - I personally overheard a L6 girl complaining about not being able to compete her Yurchenko vault )

Yes that totally happens down here =)) Didnt realize GA had more than FL in 6 this year- usually FL is top in Region 8- State Teams will be interesting!

 

[ProudDad]

When I look at mymeetscores, the top 55 for level 6 in Florida looks like the cutoff is 37.3. What am I missing?

The problem with MMS is they don't have all the events unless they are submitted. I looked at a number of gyms that are on the list as attending and many of them only have 1 or 2 meets attended for all their level 6s. And some have none. DD would have been on their XG top 100 last year if all her meets had posted.

 

[mom2newgymnast]

The problem with MMS is they don't have all the events unless they are submitted. I looked at a number of gyms that are on the list as attending and many of them only have 1 or 2 meets attended for all their level 6s. And some have none. DD would have been on their XG top 100 last year if all her meets had posted.

Actually, she posted right before I did and said the cutoff was 37.3, so it doesn't have anything to do with missing meets. The 38.2 was for the state team (top 8) I think. Anyway, I know you are right that not all meets are recorded. Although I do think it's possible that some teams only compete a couple of meets at level 6 too. I also think are you right that some gyms are competing down levels too. I think it makes sense that Florida and Georgia have more qualifiers though, they each had over 300 level 6's at their state meet which is a lot more than NC. I really don't think there will be 50+ gymnasts scoring over 38.2 at the NC state meet, but I could be wrong. At the meets that my dd's gym competed level 6 at (which were not local for the most part), 38's were top 3 at least. Anyway good luck to your dd, I am sure she will do great!

 

[ascarter1]

Dd is lv 7 in Tennessee. TN only took 28 girls (top 8 state team with scores from 39-38.225, and the next 20 with scores from 38.175-37.4). Dd made it to regionals, not the state team though. We are excited!!

 

[ProudDad]

I really don't think there will be 50+ gymnasts scoring over 38.2 at the NC state meet, but I could be wrong. At the meets that my dd's gym competed level 6 at (which were not local for the most part), 38's were top 3 at least. Anyway good luck to your dd, I am sure she will do great!

50+ absolutely not, but NC only has 22 bids. Over the course of this season I've seen at least 10 girls in just child A score over 38

 

[mom2newgymnast]

Actually, she posted right before I did and said the cutoff was 37.3, so it doesn't have anything to do with missing meets. The 38.2 was for the state team (top 8) I think. Anyway, I know you are right that not all meets are recorded. Although I do think it's possible that some teams only compete a couple of meets at level 6 too. I also think are you right that some gyms are competing down levels too. I think it makes sense that Florida and Georgia have more qualifiers though, they each had over 300 level 6's at their state meet which is a lot more than NC. I really don't think there will be 50+ gymnasts scoring over 38.2 at the NC state meet, but I could be wrong. At the meets that my dd's gym competed level 6 at (which were not local for the most part), 38's were top 3 at least. Anyway good luck to your dd, I am sure she will do great!

Oops, I meant 22! Well good luck to everyone competing!