WAG What percentage of gymnasts that go JO eventually make Level 10

[cbone]

My daughter told me that her long-term goal was to get to Level 10. I hope that that means college, too, but she sets her own goals and she is only seven years old. Her coaches indicated pretty enthusiastically that they think she can get there. Then I thought of ChalkBucket and all of the struggles that really great gymnasts have gone through. Talent is a very small part of the "getting to Level 10" equation. Does anyone know the % of gymnasts that get to Level 10?

 

[gymgal]

I am going by the 2009 figures from USAG. I know there are some updated to 2011 but this will give you an idea. There were approx 17,000 level 5s and 1,700 level 10s for that year. I used 5 because it is the first required level. Now, obviously there are a lot of multi year repeaters in level 10 that you will have to figure in so the 1,700 number is actually much less. And I know that you can't really make a true correlation across years but you can make a pretty good broad estimate that less than 15% of level 5s will make it to level 10. Now, of course this across the whole country, where many areas don't have quality upper level programs. if you are in a really good gym with a track record for higher level gymnastics, your probability to make it to 10 is going to be much higher. If you have high level gymnasts in your gym, and your gym has been established for a while, you can make out your own ratios. What is the attrition at each level each year?

Sent from my AT100 using ChalkBucket mobile app

 

[MaryA]

http://usagym.org/pages/home/publications/usagymnastics/2009/1/32_stats.pdf

If we use the level 4 numbers as our starting point (knowing that some start competing at an earlier level and some don't start till level 5), less than 8%. Even my daughter, who is a level 7 and still loving every minute of it (well, ok, LOTS of minutes of it, at least), only has (statistically) about a 22% chance of making it. I know these numbers don't tell the whole story. After all, some start later or in less intensive programs and may be a senior in high school but still "only" a level 7 or 8, so they didn't quit gymnastics, but still didn't make it to 10. Still, these are good numbers to keep in mind when we start to count on those gymnastics scholarships! . I'd love to see the stats for "Percentage of parents at level 4 who are sure their child will NEVER quit gymnastics!" Count me among them. So far, so good!

 

[MaryA]

Gymgal, I guess we were posting at the same time!

 

[OzZee]

LOL still way better odds than in Australia.
Looking at my state from all three age groups competing at level 4 (we have jnr, intermediate and senior at that level) under 4% - if only looking at say intermediates (the largest group) under 5%
But also remember we compete from level 1 (including doing a couple of years of pre-levels/rec before that) so that would be around 1% that continue to level 10.
That is the national program. International stream would have a slightly better result as the kids who join are usually pretty committed even at 5.
But we have nothing to keep the kids in the sport - no college, if not in international stream no national squad, no high school gymnastics etc.

 

[gymdog]

But we have nothing to keep the kids in the sport - no college, if not in international stream no national squad, no high school gymnastics etc.

I was thinking for a gymnast who is pretty accomplished but maybe has some fear or one weak event, it would make more sense to transfer to another sport in many systems. The JO system is really unlike most other FIG countries, of course a lot of it is driven by the NCAA possibility which is more realistic than elite for a subset of accomplished gymnasts.

But still it's a very small possibility, I would say even in your average great program (relatively healthy emotional and physical practices) that has a history of coaching upper level athletes, it's around 10% at the most, probably less than 20%. Hard to look at the official numbers because factoring in repeats, availability of upper level training, or other paths is really tough. But it clearly demonstrates of course there is a massive drop off.